This past weekend, I Twittered the question: Does Cris Cyborg deserves any top 10 pound-for-pound consideration? Which is to say that I asked the porn industry what they thought of Saturday’s fight (you see, 38 of my 44 followers are porn peddlers. But you’ll be happy to know that they’re all loyal fans).
Anyways, given the dominance of the current champions and their subsequent cleaning out of the UFC divisions, my answer is yes. Today, right now, I would consider Cyborg for pound-for-pound status. Now, I don’t know if she has stiff enough competition (no pun intended) to maintain that ranking, but she is clearly a legitimate fighter.
Apparently Strikeforce is going to put together a woman’s tournament to give Cyborg a future challenger, and expose some potential up and coming fighters. At this point, it’s a great ideal for Strikeforce to build up its women’s division.
SO… with that in mind, here is Sportsbreakers Top Ten pound-for-pound MMA fighters:
#1: George St-Pierre: The prototype martial artists. No offensive weaknesses. The absolute complete package. His resume reads likes a who’s-who list of all time welterweight greats.
#2: Anderson Silva: The most devastating striker in modern MMA history. Can he stay focused? Or is he already looking at life after the UFC?
#3: Fedor Emelianenko: Difficult to judge his PRIDE exploits as that was a dirty promotion; and his refusal to fight in the UFC raises a lot of questions.
#4: Lyoto Machida: If he wins impressively over Rua (Which he will do) and Jackson (Which is possible, but not definite), then Machida vaults to the top of the list. Still, we haven’t seen Machida fight off his back, or see how he responds when in trouble.
#5: Miguel Torres: If BJ Penn can keep getting his ass kicked and stay ranked on everyone’s top 6, then damnit, I ain’t dropping Torres after one loss either!
#6: Dan Henderson: His first round against Anderson Silva looks more impressive as time goes by. He gets the nod over Brown based on him providing my favorite knockout since Chuck KO’d Tito!
#7: Mike Brown: I really wish the UFC would absorb the lighter divisions. Between Spike, VS Network, PPV and a potential deal w/HBO or a major network; they’ll have the airtime to get their fighters on TV.
#8: BJ Penn: I think Penn has been overrated since his comeback to the UFC. He’s got skills, but did he wait too long to take his career seriously? His fight with Diego Sanchez could be his legacy fight.
#9: Jon Fitch: Again, how does BJ Penn stay in the top ten loss after loss after loss? Fitch has one tough loss to GSP for crying out loud! Fitch is a stud and highly underrated.
# 10: Cris Santos: The women’s game is exciting to watch and should be taken seriously. Cyborg is an awesome fighter.
Honorable mentions:
Urijah Faber: Should consider a move down to 135. The 145 pound division continues to “grow.”
Quinton Jackson: Why doesn’t Jackson use more low leg kicks or any of his wrestling skills? Rampage seems to be growing into a one-dimensional fighter.
Nate Marquardt: I would love to see Marquardt rematch Silva. He could be a lion in the weeds. I think he’s improved greatly since his loss to Silva.
Brock Lesnar: If he weighed 170 pounds, could he still do what he does?
On the radar: Jose Aldo, Jon Jones and Anthony Johnson.
Aldo will get his shot at Mike Brown soon. As for Jones and Johnson, neither are ready for primetime yet; but I believe in the next year or two, we’ll be talking about both being title contenders.
Ever since the hippies started burning bras and tennis lesbians beat up on middle-aged reporters, the women of America have been demanding respect and equality in the athletic world. But forty years later, unless you’re a smokin’ hot babe, no one cares about women in sports.
That is unless they’re mixed martial artists.
I truly believe that women of the 30’s (Babe Didrikson anyways) was more respected than the women of the 21st century.
Venus is better than Serena, but Serena is more popular. Why? Because she has enormous “T’s” & “A” and likes to flaunt them. Almost EVERYBODY is better than Danica Patrick, but she whores herself out to Go Daddy every year and people think she’s a pioneer. Compare that no-talent, groin tease to legitimate athletes in the WNBA, and what do people say about them? They’re lesbians or horses.
But if you’re a female, and you can kick someone’s ass, then MMA fans respect you. Yes, the same bloodthirsty, beer swigging, redneck, barroom idiots that cheer like maniacs at the Roman Coliseum… THEY’RE the ones who are more progressive and accepting of women’s advancements in sports. Why? They just want to see good fights.
This Saturday StrikeForce is putting on an event that will see a main event match between Gina Carano and Cris “Cyborg” Santos. No, this is no gimmick. In fact, these women are viewed more legitimately than Kimbo Slice. MMA fans REALLY do want to see these two fight. This is one of the most anticipated fights of the year. It might be THE most anticipated fight outside of the UFC.
For my pick, I think I’m going to go with Cyborg. This is going to be a full five minute round (compared to the previous three minute rounds), and Cyborg is much leaner (and meaner) than Carano. I think Gina is going to gas out in the second round, and Cyborg is going win via TKO.
Question: Should the winner of this fight be considered one of the top ten pound-for-pound fighters in the world? Send your e mails to: breakermail@sportsbreakers.com
Barstool Talk: Who’s More Overrated: Favre or Sanders?
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 - by Kevin Carhill
Who doesn’t like to watch Barry Sanders and his patented jump-stop-and-go move as he breaks out of the pack and down for a 60-yard TD run?
Who doesn’t like to watch an unshaven Brett Favre with white breath mushrooming out of his mouth, as he escapes the blitz and whips a ball 40-yards down field for a forth quarter come-from-behind victory at Lambeau Field?
Say what you want to say about Favre, he was damn entertaining to watch… and there’s the rub: entertaining does not equate to greatness.
Allen Iverson was must see TV, but does anyone rank him among the greatest guards in NBA history? My boy Dave Krieg ranks in the top ten in: total yards passing, touchdown passes, completions and victories (at least he did a few seasons ago, I haven’t checked for while). Does anyone think that Krieg is one of the best QB’s in NFL history?
So how do we measure greatness?
First, we break down Favre. The NFL’s all time leader in TD passes, yards and, oh yea, interceptions.
Anyone who has watched the NFL for any length of time SHOULD be able to tell you (unless they work for ESPN) that you cannot win when you turn the ball over. So how great can Brett Favre be, when he is one of the most turnover-prone players in the history of the NFL?
If you took Brett’s fourth quarter and OT victories, and subtracted the games he lost due his multiple turnover games… would you have a net, or a negative?
Second, we look at one Barry Sanders. The Sanders argument is a simple one. It’s all about second down.
With Barry Sanders, you played home run ball. We all know that Sanders has lost more yardage than anyone in NFL history. So if he didn’t break a 20-yard run, you were losing two or three yards. Compare that to someone like Emmitt Smith (who might be the most underrated back in NFL history) and his unspectacular 4.2 yards per carry average.
With Emmitt’s four-yard dive, the Cowboys would come up with 2nd and 6. You can do anything on 2nd and 6. If Emmitt carries again for four yards, its 3rd and 2 and the world (or the playbook) is your oyster.
With Barry LOSING three yards on first down, the Lions now come up to the line with 2nd and 13 to go… see the hole the Lions are in already? Now they have to pass, and opposing defenses can play them one-dimensionally.
So Detroit goes three-and-out, fall behind in the game, and then Sanders breaks a long run in the third quarter and everyone thinks Barry is the greatest running back in history.
People who don’t know anything about football (ESPN) would always say, “What would happen if Sanders had a better O-line?”
Well, we found out what would happen when Bobby Ross took over for Wayne Fontes. He gave Sanders a fullback and a tight end and Barry ran for 2,000 yards (he also had a career high in yards per carry at 6.1).
Only Sanders didn’t like being told what to do. He didn’t like it when Bobby told him he HAD to run to a specified hole. So two years latter, on the eve of training camp, Barry Sanders QUIT on his team when he announced his retirement.
Real class act that Barry Sanders.
So who is more overrated: The drunk, pill popping, sensitive, “I don’t wanna go to training camp, Brett Favre? OR the undisciplined, “I don’t want to be told what to do so I’ll just quit on my team,” spoiled brat, Barry Sanders?
Answer: Barry Sanders is more overrated. Farve did win a Super Bowl, and his Mexican Soap Opera drama at the end of his career has taken the shine off him. But people are still under the impression that the Lions lack of playoff success was in spite of Sanders, and not in part, because of him.
In the wake of two dominating performances by two UFC title holders, it’s clear to me that this is the greatest stable of concurrent champions the UFC has ever had. Each champ appears to be in position to hold on to their belts for the next couple of years. However, as Miguel Torres showed us Sunday night, things can end abruptly in the fight game. Which poses the question: Which UFC Champion is most vulnerable?
#1: BJ Penn: I have Penn at the top spot solely because of Diego Sanchez. I believe Sanchez is strong enough to grapple with BJ on the matt and win a decision from him. However, if Penn gets past Sanchez, I don’t believe any of the current contenders possess the skills to defeat BJ (see: Tyson Griffin, Roger Huerta, Nate Diaz, Kurt Pellegrino, Spencer Fisher or Hermes Franca)
#2: Lyoto Machida: I really believe Machida could clean out the light heavyweight division. However, has anyone seen Machida fight off his back? Some guys look invincible for a while, then someone comes in and exposes the man. Machida also has a fight (potentially) with Rampage Jackson that is no gimmie. There’s also been talk of Randy Couture coming down to 205 to fight the Dragon after his match with Big Nog. Other potential opponents: Vitor Belfort, Rich Franklin, and Dan Henderson, none of which I would take over Machida. Anderson Silva won’t fight Machida and while I really like Jon Jones, he’s at least two years away from contending for a title.
#3: Anderson Silva: Silva is 34. Similarly Chuck Liddell had his best run in his thirties, but when he lost it, it went quick. Silva also has aspirations of becoming a pro boxer and has shown a lack of intensity in fights where he feels his opponent is inferior. Anderson Silva is without a doubt one of the greatest martial artists of our time, however there is going to come a time when an older, unfocused Silva steps into the octagon against a young and hungry fighter that will upset the champ. Possible contenders: Demian Maia, and Nate Marquardt.
#4: Georges St-Pierre: I believe GSP is the greatest pound-for-pound fighter in MMA history. He is the prototype fighter who excels in every offensive category. GSP has embarrassed a number of tremendous fighters and possess the best resume of anyone in modern times (victories over: Frank Trigg, Matt Hughes, Jon Fitch, BJ Penn (twice), Karo Parisyan, Sean Sherk, Josh Koscheck, and Thiago Alves). The 170-pound division is always tough, but GSP hasn’t even turned 30 yet (he’s only 28 freakin years old!), Pierre is just now beginning to enter his prime! I don’t believe the man that can beat GSP is currently on UFC’s roster. Future victims could include: Martin Kampmann, Brock Larson, Ben Saunders, Mike Swick; and by the time Pierre has run through those guys, Johnny Hendricks and Anthony Johnson should be ready to get beat down…I don’t even believe Jake Shields can stop GSP.
#5: Brock Lesnar: Block Lesnar… no, he is not the most talented champion, but the skills he does posses are so dominating, it’s a near impossible match-up for anyone. Block has the ability to take down anyone on the planet, so scratch off all the standup strikers like Cheick Kongo, Mirko Cro Cop, Junior Dos Santos and Shane Carwin. And none of the grapplers can match Lesnar’s strength, so scratch off Cain Velasquez and Gab Gonzaga. Perhaps a guy like Big Nog can catch Lesnar in a submission, but is Nogueira any more dangerous than Frank Mir? The only guy who poses a threat to Block is Fedor… but I think Lesnar would TKO Fedor.
Of the five UFC Champions, who will be the first to lose their belt? Who will be the last? Send your e-mails to: Breakermail@sportsbreakers.com
Now, you guys know how much I rip a lot of sportswriters and ESPN for their propensity to report to the lowest common denominator; but I do not include Peter King in that category. I genuinely enjoy his column even I don’t agree with it… and this would be one of those occasions.
Peter has said the debate for NFL Team of the Decade, comes down to the New Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
First off, there is no doubt in my mind the Pats will this mythical award. But it will not be honored by Sportsbreakers Territory (yes, after Twitter delete all our porno spam followers, we have been demoted from a county to a territory again).
The Pats have appeared in four Super Bowls, winning three, and own a 16-0 regular season. While the Steelers have constantly been strong, and won two Super Bowls.
HOWEVER… the Patriots are disqualified because they were caught cheating. Is Barry Bonds the greatest hitter of all time? Is Marion Jones the greatest women’s sprinter of all time? I say no to all of the above.
The bottom line: cheaters should not be honored. Period.
Now the Steelers are a different story. They are not cheaters, but would you still say they were the Team of the Decade if they were 1-1 in the Super Bowls? Clearly they played in, and won, the worst officiated Super Bowl in pro football history. The fact that Ben Roethlisberger continues to get credit for “leading his team” to victory in Super Bowl 40 is the prime example of how over-valued and uneducated sportswriters are about the QB position and the NFL in general.
Pittsburgh was absolutely DOMINATED in Super Bowl 40, as the refs took anywhere from 14-24 points off the board for the Seahawks. I hardly think that’s “Team of the Decade” material.
No. No, instead I’m going to go with the most consistent team this generation. The Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have set an NFL record for consecutive 10-win seasons, have won more division titles than anyone in this decade (actually the Patriots have…but I’m putting an asterisk by all of their accomplishments), have the best QB of this generation, and one of the greatest coaches of all time. I know they only have one Super Bowl win, and that leaves the argument open to the Baltimore Ravens or Tampa Bay Bucs, both of whom could argue they had the greatest defense in NFL history.
This year is a big “legacy” season for a number of franchises. If the Steelers can repeat as champions, they become a legitimate dynasty. If the Pats win, they make it difficult for guys like me to dismiss their previous championships. Of course, if the Colts win, they will hands down be the Team of the Decade.
First let’s start with the AFC, since I think there are only a few legitimate contenders. And by a few, I mean the Colts and Patriots.
The Bills, Dolphins, Titans and Chargers are all strong teams, but none are complete teams. The Steelers have gotten extremely lucky the past few years and by virtue of how difficult it is to repeat as Super Bowl Champs, I’ll say the Steelers will run out of steam come playoff time.
Perhaps there will be a surprise team that comes out of nowhere, but aside from the St. Louis Rams, how often do Cinderella teams actually go on to win the Super Bowl? No, the AFC will come down to the Colts and Patriots.
As much as I hate New England, they are, beyond argument, the most talented team in the NFL this year. The only question is: has Indy’s D improved enough to top them in a playoff game?
The NFC is completely wide open. In fact, with the exception of the Cardinals, there is no clear favorite as to who is going even win the divisions.
I really like the changes that have been made in the NFC North. I wonder if the division is going to produce three playoff teams, or is the division going to beat up on each other and allow, say… a 9-7 San Francisco team into the playoffs.
The Eagles are the team to watch. For the past few seasons, they’ve posted top 10 team stats without achieving a 10-win season. It is as they say: time to poop or get off the pot. If Philly doesn’t get it done this year, the Reid/McNabb era is over.
But not only do I think the Eagles are going to win the East; I think they’re going all the way back to the Super Bowl. Here’s the breakdown:
AFC Playoff teams: Patriots, Steelers, Chargers, Colts. Wild Card teams: Bills and Bengals.
Super Bowl XLIII: Indianapolis Colts over the Philadelphia Eagles
MVP: Donovan McNabb
D MVP: Troy Polamalu
Rookie of the Year: Chris Wells
D Rookie of the Year: Aaron Curry
Coach of the Year: Marvin Lewis
Cinderella: Cincinnati Bengals
Overrated: The Wildcat formation. Of all the fads that have come and gone in the NFL, I think the Wildcat will exit the quickest. The reason NFL teams don’t run the option is simply the way it can be defended. By that I mean, you defeat the option by getting penetration and blowing up the play before it develops; or by stringing it out and pushing it to the sideline. NFL D’s are stacked with fast guys who can shoot the gaps. No way does the Wildcat serve as anything other than a flee-flicker type play that is ran one or two times per game.
Underrated: Run stuffing defensive tackles. They don’t get stats, and they don’t have John Madden (or Madden wanna-b’s) pointing out their good blocking up front on instant replays. But if you can’t stop the run, you cannot win. NO ONE who ranked in the top 12 in run defense had a losing record last year (the Redskins and Chargers were 8-8). While the bottom twelve teams only had TWO teams with wining records (Colts and Falcons, and both were one-and-done in the playoffs). Three of the final four in the playoffs (Pitts, Balt and Giants) ranked in the top 10 in run D. In fact, since 1970 thirty three of thirty nine Super Bowl Champions have ranked in the top 10 in run D. It’s time to start considering: Kris Jenkins, Vince Wilfork, Haloti Nagata, Pat Williams, Casey Hampton, Mike Patterson, and Marcus Stroud as potential D MVP’s.
Good Fantasy Pick: Matt Forte and Frank Gore. Matt Forte will not face as many 8-man fronts with Jay Cutler at the helm, and Frank Gore figures to lead the NFL in rush attempts this year. Both are good out of the backfield too.
Fantasy Guy to Avoid: Michael Turner. The man who leads the NFL in carries (or more importantly passes the 370 carries threshold) tends to fall off the following year (See: Alexander, James, Anderson, Davis, Lewis, George and pretty much anyone not named Dickerson or Emmitt).
We complete our extensive preview of the upcoming 2009 National Football League season with YOUR San Francisco Forty Niners:
San Francisco Forty Niners: There are a lot of signs indicating a turnaround in San Fran: A defense that only gave up 3.8 rush yards per carry, a turn over ratio of minus 17 that will be decreased, and a (hopefully) stable QB situation. Under Mike Singletary they finished the second half of the season with a winning record (5-3 after the bye week), and now the turnover prone offense of Mike Martz is gone. With all of that (potentially) going in their favor, it’s not inconceivable for the Niners to swing two games. That would make them 9-7 this year, and in the hunt for the division title.
HOWEVER… say what you want to say about Mike Martz; his offense SCORES POINTS. The Niners, with JT O’Sullivan and Sean Hill at QB averaged 21.2 ppg! (Better than Buffalo, Jacksonville, Seattle and Washington. The NFL avg was 22 ppg last year. Also consider they avg a league worst 13.7 ppg in 2007. Prior to Mike Martz, the Niners had not had a season where they average over 20 ppg since 2003) so with the new OC; their seventh in seven years, (Jimmy Raye, Mike Martz, Jim Hostler, Mike McCarthy, Norv Turner, Ted Tollner, and Greg Knapp who was OC for only 2 seasons… and incase your wondering, Marty Mornhinweg was OC before that), expect the Niners to run an offense like the Titans and Ravens. Which means less turnovers, more time of possession, but fewer points.
With the offense scoring less than 20 points per game, the defense must be stellar (they gave up 23.8 ppg last season). Last year the Niners gave up 106.8 rush ypg against, but only 3.8 ypc. With a better time of possession from the offense, the Niners could easily have one of the top 10 run D’s in the NFL. Last year the top 10 run Ds in the NFL were: Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Philly, Chicago, Tennessee, Jets, Redskins, Giants and Dolphins. 7 of the 10 teams made the playoffs, 9 of the 10 had winning records (and the Redskins were 8-8). The Niners were 13th overall, so reaching the top ten is a realistic goal. But San Fran will have to do more than just be a “bend-don’t-break” D. With a weak-scoring offense, the defense and special teams will have to pick up the slack, create turnovers, and score touchdowns. Last year, San Fran only had ONE special teams kick return of a TD. They also only had 12 ints, 30 sacks and 9 forced fumbles. HOPEFULLY they will BLITZ Manny Lawson. Lawson was a PASS RUSHING demon in college, but the “genius” that was Mike Nolan, dropped him back in zone pass coverage… stunningly idiotic. In a 3-4 D, you need a strong nose guard and a great linebacking unit. With Lawson, Patrick Willis, Takeo Spikes and Parys Haralson who led the team with eight sacks last year, they have the linebackers.
The bottom line: We’ve seen guys like Mike Singletary before. “My way or the highway” guys who drop their foot on the pedal and never let up. They can give your team a quick boost, but they can also grind a team down and wear them out by December. I expect a quick start for the Niners, but they could fade late. There is a high chance the Niners make the playoffs this year. Either as the last Wild Card, or if the Cards slip, as a 9-7 division champ. But the long-term outlook for San Fran looks grim (see Jacksonville and Jack Del Rio).
Draft: The Niners have done a much better job the past few years drafting talent (developing that talent is another story). I like Michael Crabtree and thought he was the best overall player in the draft. However, in an ultra conservative offense, don’t expect him to blow up his rookie year like Randy Moss. I also like D-lineman Ricky Jean-Francois. He’s very athletically gifted and should be a staple in the front 7 for years to come.
Fantasy Spin: Whoever wins the battle for the Niners QB job should be drafted late, as they could be a nice surprise as a #2 QB. In 12 career games, Shaun Hill has passed for 2,547 yards, 18 TDs, 9 ints, with a 64% completion percentage and a 90.5 QB rating. While Alex Smith is only 25, his one seasons under Norv Turner he had 2,890 yards and 18 TDs (16 passing, 2 rushing… an added dimension that Hill doesn’t have). I still have hope for Smith. He didn’t get drafted #1 overall because he has no talent. He and Nolan obviously had issues. I think Smith could be a Trent Dilfer type who blossoms late in his career. Frank Gore is a great back who also catches passes out of the backfield. Defensively, Patrick Willis is the man! Justin Smith is a good pick because he gets sacks and defends the run.
St. Louis Rams: The Rams were 0-6 against the division and only won 2 games all year. Enter Steve Spagnola, whose aggressive D scheme should instantly improve this team. They have talent on the D side that they’ve been collecting for the last 3 years. Even though the Rams lost some big names like Holt and Pace, they didn’t add a ton of pieces (especially compared to other teams that had head coaching changes) a sign that St. Louis believes it already has a talented roster. I tend to agree with that.
The D was abysmal. They gave up 154.7 rush ypg and 4.9 ypc. They cut LB Pisa Tinoisamoa and La Roi Glover’s retirement leaves them pretty thin at DT. Last year the Rams got 45 sacks. That’s pretty good considering opposing offenses were running more to protect their leads. With Spagnola’s aggressive play calling, the Rams D could quickly become a force. This unit will be like the Titans. It took a while for the youngsters to acclimate and gel, but when they did, it was a quick and drastic turnaround. If it doesn’t happen this year, expect the Rams to have the most improved D in the NFL next season. There’s just too much talent for them NOT to succeed.
Despite a garbage pass attack, the Rams still managed 103.1 rush ypg and 4.0 ypc. The O overall only avg 14.5 ppg, 15.6 first downs per game and a ridiculous 31.9 third down conversion percentage. With Steven Jackson at RB, they just need Marc Buldger (or Kyle Boller) to “manage the game” and not turn the ball over. They did lose Tory Holt and that’s a huge loss. They also cut Orlando Pace, but signed Center Jason Brown.
The bottom line: There is virtually no chance of the Rams making a playoff run, even the weak NFC West. But the D should see a quick turn around and soon be the heart of the franchise. Don’t sleep on Kyle Boller, he could be the next Kyle Orton.
Draft: I really like Jason Smith. Coming out of the spread offense, it could take him awhile to develop his run blocking skills. But it’s more important that your LT can pass block than anything else. James Laurinaitis reminds me of Junior Seau…but that’s not a positive. I used to live and San Diego and I saw Seau up close. He was undisciplined and for every fist pumping tackle he made 7-yards downfield, he’d whiff on 3 tackles. Laurinaitis is light in the ass to compete in the box at the NFL level.
Fantasy spin: Obviously Steven Jackson is the man. He’s an elite RB who should be drafted early. Defensively S Oshiomogho Atogwe is a Pro Bowl caliber player stuck on a horrible team. This could be his breakout year. Avoid Leonard Little. He’s only played in 16 games three times in his 12 year NFL career, and has only hit double digit sacks one time since 2003. I don’t think he’ll be the starter by years end. I’d be willing to take a chance on Chris Long this year. He had 4 sacks as a rookie and you know he’s got the good work ethic to improve. I bet you could pick up Long as an undrafted FA.
…And now on to the greatest team in the history of sports: My Seattle Seahawks, and the rest of the NFC West:
Seattle Seahawks: Lucky for Seattle they play in the NFC West. Of their 4 wins last year, 3 came within the division. Jim Mora Jr. takes over this year, but I’m very curious to see if he’s matured at all from his days in Atlanta. Mora was often seen chest-bumping his players coming off the field and seemed more interested in being one of the guys rather than acting like the franchise’s commander. He also made comments that coaching the Washington Huskies was his dream job. Hopefully his time as an assistant under Mike Holmgren has given Mora a different perspective.
Surprisingly, it was the passing game that failed Seattle last year. They averaged 110.5 rush ypg and 4.2 ypc, yet only avg 26:37 time of possession. Offensively they signed full back Justin Griffith, so I think the run game should continue to be strong. Seattle brought in TJ Houshmandzadeh, and hopes that Matt Hasselbeck will come back healthy. Not sure that will be enough to restore the pass attack because I have MAJOR concerns about the O-line. Walter Jones’ career might be done as he is still recovering from micro fracture surgery. That leaves the O line in shambles.
The run D regressed in a major way. The Hawks gave up 4.2 rush ypc against and were unable to force turnovers, finishing with a minus 7 in the turnover ratio. They lost Julian Peterson and Rocky Bernard, who is a great locker room guy as well as a good all around DT. CB Ken Lucas returns to the Hawks, so they now have a legit corner opposite Marcus Trufant. Seattle acquired the Lions DT Corry Redding and Packers D lineman Colin Cole. Now, correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t the Lions and Packers have two of the worst run defenses in the NFL last year?? (The answer is, yes!) Seattle expects big things from last year’s draft pick, DT Red Bryant. They have tried to address the defensive tackle position with the drafting of Marcus Tubbs, Brandon Mebane and Red Bryant, all 310 pounds or better. Tubb’s career is over due to micro fracture injury. Mebane is developing into a quality starter, but Bryant had better come on strong this year or the run D will continue to be weak.
The Bottom Line: Seattle believes it was only injuries that kept them out of playoffs last year. But the decline of the Seahawks have coincided directly to the decline in O-line. If Walter Jones cannot recover from micro fracture surgery, Sean Locklear will be the only O-lineman left from their Super Bowl run four years ago. Considering also that Matt Hasselbeck hasn’t been healthy for two years, I would say a .500 season should be considered progress.
Draft: The last few years the Hawks have wasted high draft picks on 5-10 CB Kelly Jennings and 5-9 CB Josh Wilson. Tough players with good instincts, but they are too small to cover big receivers and get slaughtered in run coverage. I like Aaron Curry. But Seattle didn’t need him. They had a chance to select either the QB or LT of the future and instead made a lateral move by trading Peterson and drafting Curry. That being said, Curry figures to be a staple for a long time in Seattle. I also like S Courtney Green and WR Deon Butler. Neither may be starters, but both figure to be solid contributors. I also love Nick Reed. He’ll be a pass rushing specialist like KGB.
Fantasy Spin: With Julian Peterson traded, expect Lofa Tatupu to return to the playmaking role he had during his rookie year. Tatupu can defend the pass and is a quality blitzer. However with Peterson being the primary playmaker, Tatupu put on some weight and became a more traditional MLB. Expect his sacks and ints to increase this year. TE John Carlson could be a break out performer like Owen Daniels was last year. I expect him to be Seattle’s leading receiver (yes, even over Houshmandzadeh).
Arizona Cardinals: The Cards backed into the playoffs by winning the NFC West. They were 9-7 only because they went 6-0 in the division. This year, the division is improved, and they will be playing a first place schedule. That means they’ll need dramatic improvement in the run game and on D to repeat what they did last year.
They lose OC Todd Haley, so HC Ken Whisenhunt will take over play calling duties. Will that take away from his other duties? Chris Wells (if used properly) should go a long way in balancing out an offense that complied 73.6 rush ypg and 3.5 ypc. But early reports in training camp are mixed. They were running quick-draws and Wells was getting stuck behind the line of scrimmage. When the Cards lined up in 7-on-7 drills, Wells dominated. So we’ll see if Zona uses Wells the way the Vikings used Herschel Walker, or will they adapt to their personnel. I think Zona should trade Boldin. If Chris Wells actually balances the offensive attack, that will mean fewer receptions to go around. If Boldin is unhappy now (as evidence by his blow up on the sideline last year when he was pulled out of the game in favor of Larry Fitzgerald), what’s going to happen when his stats drop?
The Cards are extremely avg defensively. They gave up 26.6 ppg, 110 rush ypg with 4.0 rush ypc, and only had 13 ints and 31 sacks. They did little to address the D. They are banking on DT Darnell Dockett to continue to play as he did in the playoffs. Well, is Dockett the next Albert Haynesworth? That being, a high drafted, underachieving DT who finally gets it? He’s been pretty mediocre in 6 years in the NFL. They also hope that CB Rodgers-Cromartie develops. I think he will. Cromartie got burned BAD last year. But that happens at that position. Zona also signed Sacramento’s own Keith Lewis. Lewis is a great hitter, but just like Ken Hamlin and Roy Williams, his aggressiveness also leads to blown coverages.
The bottom line: The margin of error for the Cardinals is too thin for them to repeat what they did last year. Chris Wells could be a 1200 yard 12 TD running back and really take the edge off the D and open things up for an awesome receiving corps… OR, he could be like TJ Duckett and only amount to a short yardage back. Darnell Dockett could revert to his old ways, the secondary could develop slower than expected, Anquan Boldin could become a distraction, Kurt Warner could get injured, or playing a first place schedule with a bull’s-eye on their back could negate any positive improvements in the W-L column. Putting everything together, I’m going to say the Cards miss the playoffs this year.
Draft: I like Chris Wells (but I hate calling him “Beanie”). He’s not as explosive as Adrian Peterson, but I think he can be more durable. I had Herman Johnson circled on my draft board for two years. Whenever LSU needed those crunch time, fourth quarter drives, they ran behind Johnson. He’s a beast at 6-7, 380 pounds. I just hope he doesn’t get too big like Aaron Gibson where he becomes a liability in pass protection.
Fantasy spin: You can’t go wrong with Warner and Fitzgerald. But it’s obvious that Boldin is the second option. I would wait on Boldin and only draft him if he slips. Chris Wells is a rookie RB worth drafting in the later rounds. Defensively, Karlos Dansby is an elite LB on par with any guy in the NFC. In the last two years he’s tallied 216 tackles, 7.5 sacks, and 5 ints. Adrian Wilson is arguable the best S in the NFC.
With ONE WEEK to go before NFL training camps open, we finish up the NFC East.
Washington Redskins: A tale of two teams. In the first half of last year the Skins went 6-2 and Clinton Portis was an MVP candidate. Then the Skins went 2-6 in the second half and subsequently tried to trade away Jason Campbell.
The Skins moved the ball well, especially on the ground (103.9 ypg, 4.4 ypc) but failed to convert on 3rd down (35.2%) and that affected their ability to score (16.6 ppg). It’s odd that a good run team with a solid TE/H-Back like Chris Cooley, would struggle on third downs. Mike Williams replaces Jon Jansen at RT after three years out of the NFL, although he is only 29 and a former top 5 pick. Although Williams was never as good as Jansen (and hence doubtful he’ll be better today) if he can actually play 16 games the O line will be improved. Jansen has been on-and-off the injury list the last three years. There is a very good chance that Jason Campbell takes a big step this year. He is in a contract year, has something to prove (or show case for another team) and it will be the first time in his NFL career he will have the same offensive coordinator two years in a row.
Defensively, a good D (18.5 ppg, 95.4 rush ypg, 3.8 ypc against, 97 pass deflections) got better with the addition of DT Albert Haynesworth. The Skins have had problems rushing the passer, and with Haynesworth getting pressure up the middle, it could really free up Andre Carter. A lot of people were quick to criticize Danny Snyder and the Skins for signing Haynesworth to a large contract, but wasn’t Haynesworth the most priced defensive FA on the market? Do you think the Patriots or the Colts would have gotten as much flak if they signed Haynesworth? No they wouldn’t. This is a great pick up for Washington. The Redskins did lose Shawn Springs and Marcus Washington, but young LB H.B. Blades should be ready to step up.
The bottom line: All signs point to Jason Campbell having a breakout year (or more accurately, playing consistently for 16 games). With a balanced O, and a solid D, and the NFC North knocking each other off; I like the Redskins to snatch the last Wild Card spot.
Draft: The Skins didn’t have much of a draft. Only two picks in the top 157 selections. They did draft DE Brian Orakpo 13th overall. Pass rushers really are the QB’s of the defense. Elite ones are hard to find, and it’s very difficult to project them at the next level. I do like Orakpo though. He should be a very nice all-around DE in a couple of years.
Fantasy Spin: Like I said, I like Campbell this year. I think he’ll be a really good #2 QB. Even though he’s never thrown for more than 13 TDs in a season, he’s also only thrown for double digit ints once in his three year career. His QB rating and his completion percentage has rises in each of his three years in the league. I think 3,600 yards and 18 TDs with 12 ints is very possible. Obviously Clinton Portis is an elite back. Chris Cooley figures to be the leading receiver again, and I believe he will increase his TD catches. Last year was an anomaly. Cooley caught more passes in one season in his career, but caught the fewest TDs. London Fletcher is getting up there in age, but he pulled down 133 tackles last year. Rocky McIntosh is an elite D player. He makes plays in the pass, as well as the run game.
New York Giants: The Giants did everything right last year; except win their first round playoff game. So the big question is: did they run out of gas (like Tom Coughlin teams usually do) or do they really miss Plaxico Burress?
The offense was well balanced, avg 157.4 ypg and 5.0 ypc, they tallied 21.1 1st downs and 43.1 in 3rd down percentage. They held a 33:19 time of possession advantage and scored 26.7 ppg… but a lot of that was with Plaxico still in the lineup. I think they are going to miss Burress. Rookie Hakeem Nicks WILL be good… but not as a rookie. Without Tiki, Shockey or Plax, the Giants are going to have an offense like the Eagles have had the last few years: solid, will put up some good numbers; but no playmakers. Without playmakers, the Giants are not going to make the big plays that separate playoff teams from say… the Buffalo Bills of the world.
All of New York’s playmakers are on their defense. Last year the Giants had 42 sacks and 17 ints. While they held opponents to 95.8 rush ypg, they gave up 4.0 ypc. So one has to wonder if there’s a vulnerability on this unit. They signed DT Rocky Bernard, LB Michael Boley and DE Chris Canty, so it would seem the Giants are improved on D. But don’t forget they lost their DC Steve Spagnola, and the current DC, Bill Sheridan, said he won’t blitz as much.
The bottom line: I can easily see the offense becoming stagnate without their playmakers. That means more time on the field for their defense, which means their run D could be exposed. Throw in the way Tom Coughlin wears out a team, and I envision the Giants losing a lot of close games this year. They’ll be in the mix, but I’ll call for New York to miss the playoffs this year.
Draft: I really think we’ll look back on this Giants’ class and see the foundation for their next Super Bowl run. Hakeem Nicks will be an excellent possession receiver, Clint Sintim will be an excellent all around LB, William Beatty will be starting on the O line, Ramses Barden will be the slot WR and returning kicks, and Andre Brown will be complimenting Brandon Jacobs. Also, don’t sleep on Rhett Bomar. He won’t get many opportunities in New York playing behind Eli, but he could be traded in a few years, ala Matt Hasselbeck.
Fantasy Spin: I don’t think Eli is going to top last year’s stats (3,200 yards, 21 TDs, 10 ints). His primary receivers figure to be Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith. I do think this will benefit TE Kevin Boss, who will be a second tier TE this year. Brandon Jacobs is an elite RB. He might rush for 1600 yards, but he’ll be among the leaders in rushing TD’s. Defensively the Giants have a lot of good fantasy pieces, especially if your league gives a lot of points for sacks. Justin Tuck is the top guy to get. But you’ll do well with Mathias Kiwanuka or Osi Umenyiora. Antonio Pierce led the team in tackles, but I’d hold on drafting him unless he fell to you late. He’s 30 and didn’t top 100 tackles last year. His tackles have declined each of the last three seasons. Kenny Philips is young up and coming Safety, and is worth drafting this year.
We continue our preview of the NFC with highly touted East.
Philadelphia Eagles: Once again, the Eagles pull down top 10 team stats in total O (244.4), points per game (26.0), first downs (19.9), 3rd down percentage (41.3), total D, scoring D (18.1), rush ypc against (3.5), pass deflection (97), sacks (48) and finished with a + 3 turn over ratio… yet Philly only managed a 9-6-1 record? It’s amazing to me how Philly constantly turns in top 10 statistical performances, but has only won 10 games once in the last four seasons.
This year a great team will get better. The Eagles sign franchise LT Jason Peters, and also O lineman Stacy Andrews. The only question I have on O is: Has Donovan McNabb finally turned the corner? He was soft, thin-skinned and choked in pressure situations. After his benching last year, he finished the season strong. His best run since Philly’s Super Bowl team in 2004. Has McNabb finally gotten mentally tough enough to stop being Mr. Nice Guy and lead this team to another championship? I think so. Call it the Kobe Bryant syndrome. At some point, you stop caring what other people think, you stop trying to be what you think your supposed to be; and you become focused only on winning.
Amazing; but the stellar Eagle D has been turned over completely from the Super Bowl squad. They add Ellis Hobbs, and Sean Jones to replace Brian Dawkins and Lito Sheppard. CB Sheldon Brown wants out, but Philly isn’t budging. But even if they lose Brown, they should be in ok shape in the secondary, as the pressure up front makes the DB’s in the back better.
The bottom line: The Eagles should contend for a Super Bowl… if McNabb can do his part.
Draft: The Eagles, just like the Steelers, are great at drafting and developing talent. I’m not sure about Jeremy Maclin though. He can be a great contributor, but I don’t believe he’ll ever be a #1 WR. After that though, I thought Philly’s draft was great: RB LeSean McCoy, TE Cornelius Ingram and CB Macho Harris could all be big pieces to the Eagles puzzle in the next year or two. I like WR Brandon Gibson, and I think he could actually be better than Jeremy Maclin.
Fantasy Spin: Brain Westbrook isn’t just an elite fantasy RB, he’s an elite, franchise, cornerstone fantasy player. Westbrook should be one of the top 3 selections in the draft. I think this is a good year to draft McNabb. He should attain elite QB status again this year. DeSean Jackson is solid pick because he returns kicks as well. Defensively DE Trent Cole might be the most underrated player in the NFL. Last year he got 9 sacks with 77 tackles (consider that most guys who touch double digits in sacks rarely get more than 40 tackles) he forces fumbles, and even plays the pass. A great all around player. LB Stewart Bradley led the team in tackles with 108. Sheldon Brown is a good get, as playing opposite Asante Samuel means he’ll get more chances at ints, and he defends the run well.
Dallas Cowboys: Remember how much better the Cowboys were supposed to be without the “needling” Bill Parcells? Remember that Camp Cupcake was supposed to free this team? Yea. Just goes to show how much about football ESPN really knows. Last year, one of the most talented teams in the NFL managed a 9-7 record. They missed out on the playoff because they went 3-5 on the road. Now Wade Philips says he is going to be “tougher” and “stricter.” So we’ll see how well that goes over with the players.
The Offense was strong, avg 22.6 ppg, 4.3 rush ypc, and 42.9% on third down completions. They lose T.O. but they’re still stacked with offensive talent. Shame on Jerry Jones for calling out Marion Barber after he got injured last year. The guy is one of the toughest RB’s in the NFL. When he was healthy Barber was the heart and soul of the Cowboys.
For as much hype as Phillips gets for being a defensive mind, the ‘Boys D was soft last year. They gave up 4.2 rush ypc, and despite tallying 59 sacks, only snatched 8 ints; a sign of a weak secondary. Gone is: Kevin Burnet, Chris Canty, Tank Johnson, Anthony Henry, Pacman Jones, Zach Thomas, Roy Williams and Greg Ellis. In is: Keith Brooking, Igor Olshansky and Gerald Senseabaugh. So I don’t know where the improvement on the D is going to come from.
The bottom line: While the front office was busy retooling the roster so they could eliminate off field distractions, Tony Romo went out and tried to qualify for the US Open. As long as Romo doesn’t get it, the Cowboys are destined for failure.
Draft: This team will be good as long as Bill Parcells’ players stay on the roster (see: Jason Witten, Marion Barber, Marcus Spears, Bradie James, DeMarucs Ware…). Last year’s pick, TE Martellus Bennett, is typical of the player Jerry Jones like: all the talent in the world, doesn’t have an ounce of heart or dedication. But boy, does Bennett look good on tape. Anyways, You can’t knock Dallas too much for this draft. They didn’t even get their first pick till 69, and only had two selections in the top 100. I do like CB Mike Mickens a TON! I think he’s going to hang around in a Dallas uniform for a long time.
Fantasy Spin: Marian Barber and Jason Witten are solid picks. Romo is wildly inconsistent, but he still rates in the upper 1/3 of QB’s. Felix Jones is a sleeper pick. He showed tremendous game breaking ability before he got injured. With T.O. out, Barber and Jones could be a sort of inverted DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Someone has to catch passes, I would spend a late round pick on Roy Williams. I think he’ll surprise this year. On D, DeMarcus Ware does everything. Last year he had 20 sacks with 84 tackles 6 forced fumbles and 2 pass deflections. Bradie James doesn’t get a lot of attention, but he led the Boy in tackles last year with 116 and had 8 sacks on top of that.
Today we finish up our look at the always entertaining NFC South:
Carolina Panthers: Jim Fox continues a trend of: Good year, bad year, good year. At some point, his bad year will be followed by the hiring of Bill Cowher. It could very well be this season.
Last year’s 12 win team went 8-0 at home and 4-2 in the division. They had an awesome run game that avg 152.3 ypg and 4.8 ypc, yet they avg less than 20 first downs per game (17.9) less than 40% in third down conversions (39.3) and under 30:00 min time of possession (29:28). And if you throw in the fact that the Panthers benefited from a + 6 turnover ratio; Carolina seems primed for a fall this year.
The run D was protected by a high scoring offense. Carolina gave up 119.5 ypg and 4.4 ypc. Enter new DC Ron Meeks. Meeks was the same weak DC for the Colts the last few years. Under Meeks, the Panthers will blitz less, and become even less effective. Last year Carolina’s D got 37 sacks, 14.5 of them by Julius Peppers. Now they are going to blitz less. Expect the secondary to get burned. Speaking of Peppers, he wants to be traded and he might hold out. They put the franchise on him, so it appears that he’ll play this year for Carolina; but we may not know that till game day. Other than the loss of Ken Lucas, this is basically the same team back. LB Jon Beason is highly underrated.
Offensively, the Panthers are a lot like Jacksonville. Their run game is amazing. The tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart spearheaded a team that avg 152.3 ypg and 4.8 ypc. However, once again, the pass attack failed them. Even after their one-dimensional pass game was shut down by the Seahawks in the 2005 NFC Championship game, Steve Smith STILL remains the only consistent, viable option. It’s also apparent the Jake Delhomme is not an elite QB, nor is he the QB of the future.
The bottom line: There is a low chance that the Panthers can replicate last year’s success. This figures to be the last year for a lot of Panthers like Delhome, Peppers, Meeks, and possibly Fox. A major rebuilding project could be underway next year.
Draft: There are a lot of red flags surrounding DE Everette Brown. He was basically a one-year wonder and then came out early. I like OG Duke Robinson, and CB Captain Munnerlyn who I think can make the team as a Dime Back. But I think this is a very weak draft overall.
Fantasy Spin: Jake Delhomme is a good pick if your league doesn’t penalize for ints. Otherwise, he should only be used as a bye week QB if you can help it. Either running back would be a good get. Williams gets a lot of yardage, and even though he got 18 TD’s last year, I would expect Stewart to take more carries away in short yardage and goal line. Still Williams is a playmaking RB who also catches passes out of the backfield. Draft him early. Steve Smith is an elite WR. Defensively, Peppers should be a good pick, especially in a contract year. And like I said, Jon Beason is a beast. CB Chris Gamble is a good pick because he also supports the run. Last year he had 93 tackles.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa Bay was 9-7, one year removed from a playoff run, and they still bounced Jon Gruden. Fine. It’s easy to see how his message could be tuned out by the players. But what I don’t understand is how they can run off the talent that they did and expect to improve.
Tampa and Denver are following similar paths. They both fired successful long time coaches who gave them Super Bowl wins, hired young, first time head coaches to replace them; and then blew up the roster. Both figure to suck nads this year.
I’ve always felt that you don’t replace a player unless you can improve that position. It seems Tampa is making change for the sake of change. Last year the D slipped a little with a 4.3 rush ypc against and only 29 sacks. But now, not only is Monte Kiffin gone, but so are: Derrick Brooks, Phillip Buchanon, Jovan Haye, and Cato June. Replaced by…Angelo Crowell and Niko Koutouvides??? It’s safe to say that after more than a decade of being among the best defenses in the NFL, this year, expect the Bucs to be below average.
The cuts didn’t stop on the D side either, on offense they let go: Jeff Garcia, Ike Hilliard, Warrick Dunn, and Joey Galloway (yet they kept Jerramy Stevens???!!) They signed Byron Leftwich and traded for Kellen Winslow. The O line is decent and the run game was suitable. Last year they avg 4.1 ypc. So who is the QB going to be? Michael Vick? It’s impossible for this unit to improve if it does not have a competent QB at the helm.
Also Tampa loses a home game this year. The Bucs play a “home” game against the Patriots in London.
The bottom line: There is very little chance of this team finishing above .500 this year.
Draft: The Bucs had the worst draft in the NFL this year. They had one pick in the first 80 selections, and drafted QB Josh Freeman. Freeman is a strong-armed, playmaking QB, who operated in the Spread offense in college and came out early as a Jr. Stop me if you’ve heard this story before (Vince Young, Alex Smith, JP Losman, Rex Grossman, Patrick Ramsey, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, and oh yea, how about Michael Vick). I really wonder if anyone from this draft will on the Bucs roster in three years.
Fantasy Spin: Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow should compliment each other, but their production is sure to dip due to the issues at QB. Still, both will nice back up players. Last year Barrett Ruud got 137 tackles 3 sacks and 2 Ints.
We continue our breakdown of the wide open NFC, with a look at the South. The NFC South as been one of the most fluid divisions in the NFL. Since they broke down into the current division structure in 2002, there has never been a repeat division champion, and every team has won the division at least one time.
Atlanta Falcons: I was really, really wrong about Atlanta last year. Especially about head coach Mike Smith. I thought he was soft, and that sentiment was backed up by Marcellus Wiley (who played for Smith at Jacksonville) when he said that Del Rio ran the D, and Smith was “just the guy in the corner.” But I was really impressed with the way the Falcons played sound, fundamental football…something the Jags DIDN’T do last year.
The Falcons were 7-1 at home, but surprisingly only 3-3 against the division. They averaged 152.7 rush yards per game and 4.4 ypc, and 43.4% on third down conversions; yet failed to average 20 first downs per game (19.6). One major concern Atlanta fans should have is the health of Michael Turner. Last year he passed the “carries in a year threshold” of 370 (he carried the ball 394 times including his 18 carries in the playoffs). That usually means injury or a drop-off in production the following year. But what they might lose with Tuner they should pick up with the development of Matt Ryan and the addition of Tony Gonzales.
The run D was weak giving up 4.9 ypc, but despite that and a minus three in turnover ratio, the Falcons still won 11 games. This shows me that they overachieved a bit last year. They lose Lawyer Milloy, who was one of the locker room leaders who kept a very team together. But they did sign LB Mike Peterson, who is stud, and could become the leader of the D. Young S Jamaal Fudge was re-signed, so perhaps he’s due for a breakout year. He was a beast in college, but hasn’t really been heard from in the Pros. Perhaps with Milloy out, Fudge will emerge as a presence in the middle.
The bottom line: They might not win as many games as they did last year, but I like the collection of young talent on the roster. There is a high percentage chance of Atlanta returning to the playoffs, but I think with a more difficult sched, and what will almost assuredly be a drop in production from Michael Tuner, I’m picking the Falcons to miss the playoffs.
Draft: In time, DT Jerry Peria will be the anchor of the D. But that’s not going to happen in his rookie season. I also love S William Moore. During the college football season he was touted as a top 10 talent; for Atlanta to pick him up in the second round was highway robbery! DT Vance Walker has been touted as an NFL prospect for the last two years. Once again the Falcons did well by taking him in the 7th round. It’s going to be very interesting to see how DE Lawrence Middleton develops. He could be the next DeMarcus Ware.
Fantasy Spin: Stay away from Michael Turner. To go from a second string RB, to leading the NFL in carries is a HUGE red flag for me…OR… draft Turner and trade him. Almost every league carries more than one RB, so as long as you address the RB position in the first four rounds, you should be fine. Tony Gonzalez is still an elite TE. Last year he had over 1,000 yards and ten TDs. It’s ok to draft Matt Ryan, but like I said in a previous post: winning on the field and winning in FFB are two different thing. At this point, Ryan might be a second tier QB at best. Roddy White should continue to play at an elite level, he’s worth taking early. Defensively, Mike Peterson is a tackling machine. CB Chris Houston is entering his third year in the league, and I think he’s going to break out this season. Houston is a very late round sleeper. Avoid John Abraham. He’s 31 years old and coming off a 16.5 sack season. Abraham hasn’t had a year with more than 10.5 sacks since 2001. I think last year was a bit of a fluke. I expect him to touch 10 sacks, but unless you have super bonuses for sacks, Abraham doesn’t get enough tackles or ints to warrant drafting. His ability to produce points is going to be wildly inconsistent.
New Orleans Saints: Q: What’s the difference between the Cardinals and the Saints? A: The strength of the division. Had New Orleans played in the West, they would have been in the playoffs last year.
The Saints had a 2-4 record in the division. They should improve upon that this year. They scored 28.9 ppg, but were really a one-dimensional O averaging less than 100 yards rushing per game. Still, despite the pass happy O, they only gave up 13 sacks. Sean Peyton might actually be the weak link on offense. His play calling is suspect. Going back to his days as the Giants OC, he has a history of staring hot and fading. His play calling lacks variety and his tendencies can be picked up by other DC’s. They lose Duce McAlister, but with Pierre Thomas, they should still be in good shape running in short yardage. Jeremy Shockey was a non-factor last year, and it’s debatable whether or not his presence will make much of a difference.
The D lacks playmakers. Last year the Saints only tallied 15 ints and 28 sacks. The run D struggled giving up 4.2 ypc against the rush. The hired Greg Williams as new DC, which should go a long way to improve that side of the ball. Last years 1st round pick Sedrick Ellis is the most important Saint this year. The Saints are weak at DT and it’ll be impossible for them take the next step without strong DT play. Darren Sharper has been added at S as well as Paul Spicer to DL.
The bottom line: As long as Drew Brees is healthy, New Orleans is going to put up point. I like Greg Williams as the DC, and just a little improvement on that side will go a long ways in the W-L column. If they can have a positive turnover ratio (last year they were minus 4), and shave their rush yards against to under 4, they should be able to swing two games. That puts them at 10-6, good enough to be division winners.
Draft: The Saints only had one pick in the first three rounds. Malcolm Jenkins is a great pick though. He’s physical enough to support in the run and versatile enough to play zone. The knock on him is that he doesn’t have 4.3 speed. Well, that’s why they have safeties. Jenkins could be a first day starter, and hold that position for the next ten years. Rookie FA RB Herb Donaldson from Western Illinois is someone to keep an eye on. I hadn’t heard of him until draft dray, but the Saints had to outbid Dallas, St. Louis, Cleveland, KC and the Giants to sign him to a three year deal. The 5-11 220 pounder rushed for 4,746 yards and 50 TDs at Western Illinois.
Fantasy spin: In fantasy football, Drew Brees is more valuable than Peyton or Brady. He is THE number QB on the draft board. Reggie Bush is a good get too, especially if you get points for number of receptions as well as reception yards. His kick returns make Bush a three-dimensional player. Pierre Thomas is a very solid #2 RB. If you combine his numbers with Deuce’s, the stat line reads: 236 carries, 1,043 yards and 14 TD’s. I think those are very plausible numbers for Thomas this season. On defense, Jon Vilma is good for 130 tackles and has had an int every year he’s played in the league.
Chicago Bears: The instant the deal was made for Jay Cutler, ALL you heard was “Cutler is immature,” “Cutler is an average QB,” “Josh McDaniels can run the Patriots offense with Kyle Orton,” “Kyle Orton can manage a game and Cutler is not a leader.”
I PROMISE you, by the time the Bears win their first game, you will have EVERY cock-knocker on ESPN puking on themselves trying to compliment Jerry Angelo on what an amazing job he did to get the team its franchise QB. I PROMISE you that the same malophites at Bristol will pile on each other in giant, naked, Iraqi pyramids; trying to be the first one to tell you how stupid the Broncos were for running off Mike Shanahan. Just remember that Sportsbreakers called it a GREAT move right away.
Despite the reputation of a faltering franchise, the Bears were 9-7 last year. Defensively, Chicago was underrated. Despite spending more time on the field and playing from behind (the Bears offense suffered a 28:36 time of possession deficit), Chicago only gave up 93.5 rush yards per game and 3.4 ypc. Adding Pisa Tinoisamoa with Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, gives the Bears the best LB unit in the NFC. They need to improve their sack total from 28, but with Jay Cutler giving them a lead to play with, should help that.
The offense wasn’t nearly as good as some have indicated. The Bears averaged 23.4 ppg. But that includes defensive and special teams scores. Chicago struggled in the run game avg only 3.9 ypc and only avg 16.5 first downs per game. They also had a dismal 35.6 third down conversion percentage and as I said above, a 28:36 time of possession. So clearly, the offense struggled to move the ball. That won’t be the case with Jay Cutler, who last year he threw for more than 4,500 yards and 25 TDs. The threat of Cutler will open up the offense and send Matt Forte to the Pro Bowl. Chicago also added FA O linemen Frank Omiyale, Kevin Shaffer and Orlando Pace. The Bears will be much more dynamic on offense this year.
The bottom line: For the first time in a long time, the Bears vs. Packers rivalry is going to mean something. Both will be in the playoffs, and the division winner will get a first round bye.
Draft: I haven’t been very thrilled with the Bears draft classes of late. They seem to get one guy with six nobodies. This year I think that guy could be Jarron Gilbert DT out of San Jose State. 6-5 288 pounds, he is build very much in the mold of Tommie Harris. A penetrating under tackle who can be very disruptive. After that… Perhaps DJ More CB out of Vandy and Marcus Freeman LB out of Ohio State could be contributors. But not much else.
Fantasy spin: I believe Matt Forte will emerge as an elite RB this year. I think Cutler is going to be good, but I’m not sure if he can top last years stats (now hold your horse Sportsbreakers County, 3500 and 20 TDs is still a great improvement over what they had last year… but winning on the field and winning in fantasy football are two different things!) Anyways, I think Cutler is a early mid round pick. Somebody has got to catch his passes, and I like TE Greg Olsen. I think he’s going to blow up this year. Defensively, Brian Urlacher is an all around playmaker. Jump back on the Bears pass rushers Ogunleye and Brown, their sacks should go up this year. Briggs was the leading tackler with 110 and CB Charles Tillman tallied 93 tackles with 3 ints.
Detroit Lions: Well at least there’s nowhere to go but up. Despite the most embarrassing season in NFL history, I’d rather be the Lions than say… Denver.
Offensively the Lions are little more than an expansion team. Last year Detroit only scored 16.8 ppg, 83.3 rush ypg, 28.8 3rd down conversion percentage and a pathetic 26:59 time of possession. They got rid of Jon Kita, so they will be dependent on rookie QB Matthew Stafford. That’s never a recipe for success. But Stafford wanted to be here. He wanted the challenge, so that’s a positive. Daunte Culpepper could get the start early, but I don’t expect him to get more than five or six starts before they hand the reigns over to Stafford. They add WR Ronald Curry, and Bryant Johnson to pair with Calvin Johnson. Also they signed Toniu Fonoti, who is a good run blocker. RB Kevin Smith is solid, but progress on O could be minimal.
Defensively the Lions were a league worst in just about every major category. They gave up 32.3 ppg, 172.1 rush ypg and 5.1 ypc, and they only got 4 ints. They lose CB Leigh Bodden. The new head coach, Jim Swartz, is the former DC of the Titans. The Lions acquired Julian Peterson, Larry Foote, Phillip Buchanon, Anthony Henry, and Grady Jackson, to pair with Daniel Bullocks, and Ernie Sims. So the D has a chance at not being embarrassing. But the offense figures to struggle, so these guys will find themselves on the field for a long time and will still rank towards the bottom of the league.
The bottom line: There is little chance that the Lions will win more than 5 games, but there is a lot of quality pieces in place. Once Stafford gets his feet under him, the Lions should be in good position to make a run for the playoffs. I think Detroit is two years away from being playoff contenders. There are some good skill positions, and the upcoming 2010 off-season should be spent solely on the O and D line.
Draft: I like the Lions draft the past four years. You figure since 2006 they’ve drafted: Ernie Sims, Daniel Bullocks, Calvin Johnson, Gosder Cherilus, and Kevin Smith, they have some great pieces to build around. At some point, it’s going to pay off. This year they add TE Brandon Pettigrew, S Louis Delmas to pair with Bullocks, WR Derrick Williams, who at worst will be a great return man, and of course QB Matthew Bradford. The future really is bright for Detroit.
Fantasy spin: Kevin Smith is solid pick for RB. He’s going to be leaned on heavily, and last year, even though he didn’t crack 1,000 yards, he got 8 TDs. Amazingly Calvin Johnson caught 78 passes for 1300 plus yards and 12 TDs. He’s definitely one of the top WR’s in the draft. Defensively Ernie Sims is tremendous.
The UFC needs villains. In the early days of the UFC, people I knew pulled for Ken Shamrock because they hated Royce Gracie. They felt he was boring and he never broke his submission holds soon enough.
During the largest boom period of the UFC, everyone pulled for Randy Couture and Chuck Liddell to beat the crap out of Tito Ortiz.
Enter Block Lesnar. I don’t like him. The fans boo him. And now he’s the biggest star in the sport.
Well good. Now the UFC can ride the fans hatred for Block all the way to the bank.
Reportedly Dana White had a talk with Block, who then went out and apologized. But really, as much as I can’t stand Lesnar, White’s gotta take the leash off and let Lesnar be Lesnar.
Of course, Lesnar’s actions after the match led to many in the mainstream press to criticize Block for talking trash. But aren’t these the same people who worship Muhammad Ali and Floyd Mayweather Jr.? Aren’t these guys two of the most disrespectful athletes ever?
Now as for Dan Henderson’s leaping forearm against an unconscious Michael Bisping: one, that should teach Bisping to keep his mouth shut. Two, that’s fighting. If you can’t take that, then this sport is not for you. I hope to the Lord All Mighty that the UFC doesn’t start cow-towing to a bunch of San Francisco pussy’s who only saw the highlights on SportsCenter and didn’t even watch the event in its entirety.
It’s always these kinds of people who will fight to change the sport. The people who never watch it, but claim they know everything about it. Ironically, it isn’t the Bible Thumpers of America that the UFC is fighting; it’s ESPN and sportswriters from around the country.
I laugh when I hear the ancient fossils of the sporting world mock the UFC audience by saying the “18-32 year old demographic with skull T-shirts” are the only ones watching UFC. Yea, and let it be known that they’re not watching boxing or baseball, two sports that will be dead by the time I’m TJ Simers’ age.
By the way: How desperate is the NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB to make gains in the “18-32 year old demographic?”… Jealously anyone?
But screw them. Douche on the critics, stop watching SportsCenter, it’s not about that. UFC 100 was a tremendous card. Georges St-Pierre is now the unquestioned pound-for-pound king of MMA. Block Lesnar is an established villain and a legitimate force in the heavyweight division. Mark freakin’ Coleman got a hard fought win over Stephen Bonner, and Dan Henderson had one of the greatest knockouts in UFC history.
I enjoyed it, the people I was with Saturday night enjoyed it, and millions of MMA fans all over the world enjoyed it. And at the end of the day, WE are the driving force behind MMA, not ESPN and not decrepit sportswriters. WE the paying fans. So long as Dana listens to us (which he does), our sport will be well taken care off.
So for all the haters out there, be forewarned: the best is yet to come!
This Saturday, the Ultimate Fighting Championship reaches its 100th numbered event.
Quite an accomplishment considering how UFC 1 came to be (but that’s another blog).
I remember in 1997, I was in Naval “A” school when I first heard of the UFC. Me and a bunch of my buddies piled into a dorm room at the extremely enthusiastic invite of one of our classmates.
I cracked open some Old E, and my jaw dropped! I was stunned, amazed. And I was absolutely hooked!
I saw UFC 2 and 3 that night. Then every weekend after that, I went to the local .99 cent video store to check and see if there was a new release of a UFC home video. At that time the UFC was banned from PPV, and they were fighting in Japan and Brazil. UFC videos were under the Special Interest section next to “Faces of Death” and porn.
Back then Ken Shamrock really was the “World’s Most Dangerous Man,” but my favorite early UFC fighter was Oleg Taktarov.
It became difficult to find UFC video’s for quite some time. Finally I remember watching a UFC PPV commercial in 2002 and I was excited… but not excited enough to drop $25 bucks. I mean who the heck is this “Randy Couture”???
It was a few month later when Ken Shamrock was making his glorious return to the UFC to take on the King of A-holes Tito Ortiz.
That was something I’m willing to drop $25 bucks to see!
While the main event was a disappointment, there was a young stud on the under card by the name of Robbie Lawler who had me wanting to watch more. That would be a trend for the UFC: a stacked three hours of action where you were going to get your monies worth. I was eager to learn more about these guys. Hell, I wanted to BE a UFC fighter. (I actually went in search for the Lion’s Den San Diego chapter… but that’s another blog).
And seemingly so was the rest of underground America.
UFC 1 was a flash in the pan. It got everyone’s attention, but it was unfocused. It had little substance, no structure. Shamrock vs. Ortiz was the pebble in the water. By the time UFC 40 came around, there was a ranking structure, a champion, and the thing that all good sports have: rivalries.
The wave that rose from that year, hasn’t stopped rising yet. ESPN ignored it. Boxing purist tried to fight it. But the UFC become a beast that couldn’t be denied. The UFC now serves as an analogy for toughness.
I went to UFC 52 to watch my new favorite fighter Randy Couture take on Chuck Liddell for the second time. I KNEW Couture was going to smother Liddell again…
Despite walking away disappointed, my enthusiasm of the sport was greater than ever. There was a buzz in the air that was thicker than the De La Hoya-Hopkins fight a few weeks earlier. At that point I knew UFC had surpassed boxing.
The UFC is pure. It’s not tainted by strikes, corrupt lottery drafts, cover-ups, or rigged ranking systems. The best fighters in the world fight the best fighters in the world. It’s a simple, straightforward promotion, with clear-cut champions.
So how high is the UFC ceiling? The sporting trends are to cable TV. This helps the UFC who has already laid a stake there. The more reliant on cable sports fans become; the higher profile Spike and Vs. Network gain.
I believe the Ultimate Fighting Championship can be the most popular sport in America. But that’s going to take some time. The big competitor is the NFL. And I do believe the NFL is going to take a tumble (but that’s another blog). Even with a fall, the NFL and NCAA football will remain extremely popular for quite a while.
It could be 50-60 years before MMA dominates the USA, in the mean time, I think it will probably rise to third (behind the NFL and NBA).
However, I think that right now, just as things are, a UFC champion can be a national sponsor. It wasn’t that long ago that Evander Hollyfield was pitching Burger King, Buster Douglas had his own video game, and Marvin Hagler was wearing Right Guard, “Because anything less, would be uncivilized.”
I can easily see Forrest Griffin, Rampage Jackson, Frank Mir and even a block head like Brock Lesnar pitching Pepsi, McDonalds or Kragen Auto Parts.
If The UFC continues its pace of 13 numbered events per year, then UFC 200 should be in the fall of 2017. How many more changes will the sport see then? Will we see more divisions? More restrictions on strikes? A UFC event in Madison Square Garden? A traumatic injury in the octagon? Will we see the UFC split into two promotions? What will become of the WEC? Will we see women in the UFC?
What happens when Dana White leaves? Who will the care taker be? (That is a question I don’t want answered for a LOOONG time).
One thing is for sure, we are living in the golden age of MMA. I can’t wait to tell my kids that the current heavyweight champ couldn’t hang with Randy Couture. Or that no matter how good the welterweight champ might be, he’s nothing compared to GSP. And nobody had beef like Liddell and Oritz!
Another thing’s for sure: I can’t wait for the next hundred!
We begin our breakdown of the NFC just as we did in the AFC: With the North Division. I believe the NFC North is going to be the most competitive and entertaining division in football this year.
Green Bay Packers: The Pack were just 6-10 last year, but went 4-2 against the division. Despite missing the playoffs, there is NO DOUBT, they made the correct decision in jettisoning Brett Favre.
The offense was great, they avg 26.2 ppg, 4.1 rush ypc, and 44.2% on third down conversions, with a 31:37 time of possession advantage. Aaron Rodgers is clearly capable of leading a Super Bowl quality offense. The receiving corps is deep and talented. The Pack have a quality offensive line despite the loss of RT Mark Tauscher. The only question is: can they get more consistency from their run game. Ryan Grant came back to earth a little bit after his sensational playoff run in 2007. There were only four games in which Grant rushed for more than 100 yards, and SIX games where he rushed for 61 yards or less. I like rookie free agent RB Tyrell Sutton. He probably won’t be more than a third down back, but I think he can make this team.
The big Achilles heel is the D, specifically the run D. The secondary played well, they got 22 ints and 88 pass deflections with only 27 sacks to support them. The front 7 needs a major overhaul, as they gave up 4.6 rush ypc and generated no pass rush. Enter Dom Capers and a new 3-4 scheme. If it works, the Pack could be Super Bowl bound this year. A lot depends on top pick DT BJ Raji, and 2nd round pick Clay Matthews. But those guys seem to be sound picks. They should be able to generate a pass rush with Aaron Kampman; it’s stopping the run that’s the key.
The bottom line: If they can repeat what they did against the division a year ago, there’s a high percentage chance that the Pack lock up a first round bye.
Draft: I THINK I like BJ Raji. He played next to 330 pound Ron Brace. SO… can Raji be the same terror that he was in college without a rock-stud next to him? Can he be a dominate nose guard? I will say yes, although there is some risk here. Clay Matthews is perfect for the 3-4 scheme, and he should be an excellent all-around OLB. Quinn Johnson may never be heard from again, but he’s going to play a vital role: lead blocking full back. Love those guys! Finally, I think CB Brandon Underwood has a chance to be solid nickel back.
Fantasy Spin: Aaron Rodgers is an elite QB, and WR Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are top level WR’s. TE Donald Lee is a good pick up as a #2 TE. Last year he had 5 TD’s. Despite Ryan Grant’s very average season, I would draft him in the mid rounds. Even if Brandon Jackson takes some carries away from Grant, Grant should still be the short yardage back. Last year Rodgers rushed for 4 TDs, I think Grant is going to pick up some of those and improve on his TD total. Defensively, CB’s Charles Woodson and Al Harris are great, because they defend the runs as well as pick up some ints. Atari Bigby is a big hitter who missed last year due to injury. AJ Hawk is a complete playmaker and will back a good back up LB. Aaron Kampman figures to top double digit sacks.
Minnesota Vikings: To Favre, or not to Favre. I honestly think this is a playoff team WITHOUT Favre; and NOT a playoff team WITH Favre.
Despite a minus 6 turnover ratio, the Vikings were 10-6. Meaning cutting down on turnovers could swing 2 games for them. 12-4 is a first round bye. Adding Brett Favre is NOT going to eliminate turnovers, and in fact could cost them two games.
More importantly, the Vikings don’t need him. Last year they scored 23.7 ppg, avg 145.8 rush ypg and 4.5 ypc. I think it’s asinine they way Brad Childress has handled Tarvaris Jackson. But even if Childress has ruined Jackson (the way Dennis Erickson ruined Rick Mirer) I think they’ll do just fine with Sage Rosenfels. Matt Schaub got a lot of credit for the offensive numbers that Rosenfels put up, and Rosenfels got labeled a fumbler for the one national televised game the Texans played in. They lose C Matt Birk, and that could hurt. Center is a very underrated position. Plus Birk was a great locker room guy. Adrian Peterson has a history of injuries, and he played most of last year. Can he do it again in what will assuredly be an increased workload?
Last year the Vikes had a Super Bowl quality D. They only gave up 76.9 rush yards against and an NFL best 3.3 ypc. They lose S Daren Sharper, who was another great locker room guy. And both DTs could miss the first 4 games of the season due to suspension. While Minnesota should get stronger on D as the season goes on, a slow start in what should be a very tough division race will hurt the Vikes.
The bottom line: The Vikes will be in the Wild Card hunt in December, but it seems almost a forgone conclusion that Favre is coming to Minnesota. His turnovers will kill any chance this team has of advancing to (or in) the playoffs.
Draft: I think Percy Harvin will have a place in the NFL. We’ve seen guys like Peter Warrick and Reggie Bush come to the NFL and be nothing more than complimentary players. Harvin could be that guy. He might be Devin Hester. So he might not be Gayle Sayers, what team couldn’t use a Devin Hester? I like Phil Loadholt. In my eyes, he played at the same level of Andre Smith. Only I think he’s playing the proper position of RT in the NFL. I LOVE Jasper Brinkley. However, due to injuries, I’m not sure how much he’s going to replicate his college success.
Fantasy Spin: If you are in position to draft Adrian Peterson, take him… then trade him. While Peterson might blow up for a 200 yard game in week 3 and 4, I don’t trust that he’ll be healthy come the pivotal playoff weeks in December. Brett Favre is still a good pick if you league dose not penalize turnovers. My does, so I won’t be drafting him. Bernard Berrrian should have a big year no matter who is at QB. He’s a huge playmaker and I believe he’s a second tier WR. Defensively, Jared Allen is an elite DE. LB Chad Greenway led the team in tackles and was third on the team with six sacks. DT Kevin Williams had 8 sacks, but since he’ll have to serve the early suspension, I would avoid him.
We finish off the AFC with Nor Cal’s own Oakland Raiders:
Oakland Raiders: As usual, it’s hard to handicap the Raiders because of the circus that surrounds them. Still, .500 probably gets you the division, so there is a minute glimmer of hope in the East Bay.
Tom Cable seemed to get as much out of this team as possible, but they are just constructed horribly. JaMarcus Russell cannot throw more than 20 yards down field. His best play is the roll out 15-yard dump off. But Al Davis wants to stretch the ball through the air. Despite the uproar, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey IS a better choice for Oakland than Michael Crabtree. I knew Darren McFadden was not going to be Adrian Peterson, but damn, I thought he’d at least be Tyrone Wheatley. At this point, I think they should trade McFadden while he still has value, and run with Justin Fargas and Michael Bush. The O line is capable, and the addition of Khalif Barns means there will be quality players across the entire front. IF, and it’s a HUGE if… but if JaMarcus Russell can be just an adequate QB, this team could easily score 20 points per game (they avg 16.4 last year).
Defensively, the back seven has talent, but they get no protection from the D-line. As usual, on paper the team is better than how they perform on the field. With Derrick Burgess, Gerard Warren, Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard on the front seven, it’s inexcusable for the Raiders to be as garbage as they were against the run last year. They gave up 159.7 ypg and 4.7 ypc. But it seems Warren and Tommy Kelly did what Warren Sapp did: take the money and tank it.
The bottom line is: It’s impossible for this team to live up to its potential because this organization lacks leadership. However, if the Raiders can get off to a good start, they might be motivated enough to give a better effort through the season. That being said, the chances of Oakland improving depends solely on the development of Russell, which is why I give the Raiders a very small chance of improving their record from last year.
Draft: The Raiders do such a horrible job at developing talent. Oh, they can draft talented guys, but too many of them wither away and amount to nothing. The perfect example is Robert Gallery, who has actually REGRESSED with his time in Oakland. The Raiders have had stars like: Michael Huff, Phillip Buchanon, Gallery, Fabian Washington, Andrew Walter, JaMarcus Russell and of course McFadden, who were all strong prospects but have struggled to make it in the NFL as part of the Raiders program. So what do I think of this year’s draft? I feel sorry for Heyward-Bey, Matt Shaughnessy, Louis Murphy and Slade Norris who I otherwise would say have a bright future in the league.
Fantasy spin: Well the Raiders have run the ball very well the past three years, although they do lose a tremendous lead blocker in FB Justin Griffith. Still, I think Fargas is worth taking as a #2 RB, and Bush is worth taking as a reserve back (due to Fargas’ injury history). McFadden is probably the biggest boom or bust pick in this year’s fantasy draft. I say take a chance on him in the late rounds. I would rather roll the dice on him than on a rookie RB. Defensively Kirk Morrison is one of the most underrated LB’s in the NFL. In his four NFL seasons, he has never gotten fewer than 116 tackles (and that was his rookie year). He’s also good for a couple of int’s on the year. Last year’s rookie DE Trevor Scott got 5 sacks. If the Raiders are competitive, he could get more opportunities. Save him for late. OR, if you have an auto-draft league, go back and pick him up as a FA reserve.
Denver Broncos: I’ll never understand why coaches make wholesale changes just to bring in “their guys.” Bill Parcells won 2 Super Bowls with the Giants using a 3-4 D, but when he took over Dallas, he maintained the 4-3 scheme until he got the right players to make the switch. Enter Josh McDaniels. Apparently a 25 year old Pro Bowl QB who threw for 4,500 yards and led an offense that averaged 23.1 ppg, 279.4 ypg, 4.8 rush ypc, 22.1 1st downs per game, 47.5 third down percentage and only gave up 12 sacks… well that’s just not good enough. Apparently McDaniels thinks he can change the offensive system and IMPROVE the offense with Kyle Orton… stunning.
Needless to say, with Cutler gone, and WR Brandon Marshall seemingly on the way out (or even if he does stay) the offense is going to take a MAJOR plunge. The Broncos have also produced a solid run game using the zone blocking scheme, but that’s going away too. LT Ryan Clady is a stud. But I wonder if the rest of the line is going to be exposed. I wonder if Denver can produce a 1,000 yard rusher? They did draft Knowshon Moreno and last year rookie RB Ryan Torain looked good before falling to injury. But I don’t think either of these guys can carry the offense, or eclipse the 1,000 yard mark.
Well, if the offense is going to suck ass, then the defense has to carry the day. Last year the D was embarrassing. They gave up 28 ppg… TWENTY EIGHT POINTS PER GAME (and yet they team still finished 8-8. Why? How about that offense!) They also gave up 5.0 ypc rush against, only tallied 6 interceptions and had a minus 17 in the turnover ratio. So the wonderful Josh McDaniels who ran off Jay Cutler, brings in… Brian Dawkins and Andra Davis…
No, seriously.
I love Dawkins, but the man is 35 years old, and probably only has a year or two left. Andra Davis is solid, but how staunch was that Cleveland Browns’ run D last year? Oh, and I almost forgot, now Mike Nolan will bring his 3-4/4-3 I-don’t-know-what-douche-I’m-doing defense to Denver. It didn’t work in San Francisco, and don’t forget, he was the DC in Baltimore between Marvin Lewis and Rex Ryan… yea, the Raven’s weren’t quite that dominate then. Nolan is such a bad coach, that even if McDaniels had fixed the D line, the Broncos would STILL be horrible on defense.
The bottom line: It’s quite possible the Broncos will be the worst team in the NFL this year.
Draft: Knowshon Moreno should be a very good, all around RB. He is compared to Michael Westbrook, but Moreno isn’t going to have the support around him that Westbrook does to flourish. DE Robert Ayers concerns me. He was a guy who no one talked about until late in the draft process, and the he shot up the charts. Most of those guys turn out to be busts. Alphonso Smith is a good, but short CB. That means he’ll end up as a dime back as best. I like QB Tom Brandstater, but I have a feeling that McDaniels will get fired, and then the “developmental 3rd string QB” is going to get cut before he has a chance to establish himself.
Fantasy spin: OMG. This might be the worst team to choose picks from. Brandon Marshall should be able to tally some stats regardless of who’s at QB, but he’s a back up WR at best. I would take a chance on Moreno late; he should be able to get close to 800 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards on the year. Defensively, the Broncos figure to be behind in a lot of games, so as good as Champ Bailey is, I don’t know that he’s gong to get many chances to get int’s. DJ Williams is a tackling machine. And Elvis Dumervil is a good sleeper pick, as he could touch double digit sacks as an OLB… Oh wait, I almost forgot, Mike Nolan REFUSES to make his pass rushing specialist actually blitz (see: Manny Lawson). Never mind on Dumervil.
Well, one more division to go in the AFC, and we saved the worst for last. Ladies and gentlemen: the AFC West:
San Diego Chargers: Norv Turner is not a strong head coach, the D is old and gives up big plays, they lose Igor Olshansky, Jammal Williams is old and injury prone, Antonio Gates, Shawne Merriman and LaDanianan Tomlinson are coming off injuries and might never again be the same players, and they did very little to improve an 8-8 team that only made the playoffs because the Broncos collapsed in the final month of the season… and it doesn’t really matter.
Last year the Chargers were 5-1 in the division, and this year they could be 6-0. Which means they only to need to go 2-8 outside the division, and they’ll be in the playoffs again. This is now Philip Rivers’ team, and even without Gates, they should be able to put up points. Last year they avg 27.4 ppg and 45.9% on third down conversions. Whatever they might lose in Gates’ production they should pick up in the development of Vincent Jackson.
The D is declining, but it’s good enough to keep them in games. They fired DC Ted Cotrell and hired Ron Rivera. The Chargers D should be more aggressive on that side of the ball now, so there could be an improvement even without a talent infusion. Shawne Merriman comes back, but there were reports that he really did some major damage to his knee by trying to play on it last year. I actually think he’ll be ok. He’s not the player he was on steroids, but he’s still a quality pass rushers. He and Shaun Phillips are a good tandem.
The bottom line: The chances of the Chargers making the playoffs are extremely high, as it seems they will win this division by default. Don’t be fooled however, this is a team on the verge of a major rebuilding project.
Draft: As much as I want to kick AJ Smith in his fat pompous face… he is one hell of a talent scout. I really like OG Louis Vasquez, and he could find his way into the starting lineup by years end. Larry English will be a nice rotational player with Philips and Merriman, but I don’t think he’ll be as good as either of them.
Fantasy Spin: Select LaDainian Tomlinson at your own risk. Running backs don’t really have “bounce-back” years. I depending on the size of your league, I wouldn’t draft Tomlinson until the mid rounds. I have LT my #17th ranked RB this year. I consider Philip Rivers to be an elite QB who should be taken early. I would also draft Vincent Jackson over Antonio Gates. Now because TE is a very shallow position, Gates still has draft value. But his health over the last two seasons is a major concern to me. Defensively, S Eric Weddle has become an elite player with his 127 tackle season last year. He’s had 1 int and 1 sack in each of his first two NFL seasons. Weddle is an all around playmaker in the Troy Polamalu mold. Shaun Phillips and Shawne Merriman are solid #2 LB’s. And don’t be afraid to take Antonio Cromartie. Teams avoided him last year, and he also returns kicks.
Kansas City Chiefs: If there is a team that can rise up and take the division from San Diego, it might be the Chiefs. This is a semi-talented team who vastly underperformed under Herm Edwards.
They have a new head coach in Todd Haley, who likes to run a well-balanced O, but he has shown that he’ll adjust to his personnel. The O-line is in pretty good shape. Last year the run game avg 4.8 ypc, and that was with Larry Johnson having a mediocre year. Jamaal Charles is developing into a solid weapon out of the backfield. KC also picked up highly coveted QB Matt Cassell, but outside of Dwayne Bowe, who is he going to throw to?
Defensively, the team is changing to a 3-4, and that could be a problem. Remember Dwayne Robertson? He was a top 5 pick by the Jets who many though was going to be the next Warren Sapp? Only Mangini came in and switched to a 3-4 D and then Robertson became a man out of place. He put on weight, lost his speed and quickness, and then got cut from the Broncos last year. Will Glen Dorsey suffer the same fate? Dorsey is NOT a nose tackle. He’s an under tackle. His career is potentially ruined by this move. However, it could make Tamba Hali a Pro Bowler. And they need it, BAD. Last year the Chief’s defense only had 10 team sacks. TEN… for the whole team!
The bottom line: The Chiefs are moving in the right direction. But there are too many questions for me to say they’re going to finish above .500. How will Dorsey do in the 3-4? Can they absorb the loss of Tony Gonzalez? But most importantly, is Matt Cassell the next Scott Mitchell? For that, I say KC will be more competitive, but no playoffs for them.
Draft: I think Tyson Jackson is an excellent 3-4 DE. You might never hear from him again, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be doing his job, it’s just the nature of the position. I also think K Ryan Succop has a chance to solidify the PK duties. It’s been a revolving door in KC for a while now.
Fantasy Spin: I would spend a late round pick on RB Jamaal Charles. He could be a big time sleeper this year. I also like Dwayne Bowe. Considering the QB issues the team had last year, Bowe pulled down 86 catches for 1022 yards and 7 TDs. He’s a legit #1 WR. On D, I really like Tamba Hali in the 3-4 scheme. He should touch double digit sacks. Derrick Johnson is a great all around MLB, and S Bernard Pollard led the team in tackles.
Today we finish off the AFC South with a look at Houston and Jacksonville:
Houston Texans: Every year seems like the year the Texans are going to break through. Last year they were 2-6 in the division, and still finished with an 8-8 record, so there is some hope that this could finally be the year they make the playoffs.
The run game came alive with Steve Slaton, but at 5’ 7”, he is not an every down back. I really like FA rookie RB Jeremiah Johnson, so there is potential for a nice combo backfield. I think the team is going to miss QB Sage Rosenfels. I think Matt Schaub got a lot of credit for the team stats that Rosenfels put up. I also think Rosenfels was unfairly labeled a fumbler due to one primetime televised game.
The D has talent, but it’s very young. They gave up 4.5 rush ypc and only tallied 25 sacks (with Mario Williams getting 12 of those). If 2nd year DT Frank Okam can step up this year, it could change the entire defense. At 6’ 5” and 340 pounds, he needs to be the run stuffer this team DESPERATELY needs. The return of CB Dunta Robinson is big. He missed most of last year due to a knee injury. Prior to that, he was becoming one of the premier corners in the NFL.
The bottom line: I’d like to say this is the season Houston becomes a Wild Card team. However I can more easily see a season of regression, than a playoff run. Head coach Gary Kubiack was reprimanded by the union during off season workouts, because he was running full contact drills with no pads during spring camp. So the big question is: does Kubiack have the respect of the locker room? I say no playoffs for Houston.
Draft: I actually think their best pick was the free agent rookie Jeremiah Johnson. I think he’s perfect for the zone blocking scheme Houston runs. I believe he’ll have a solid rookie season. OLB Brian Cushing and S Troy Nolan should be contributors, although probably on special teams at first. Other than that, I wasn’t real impressed with their selections this year.
Fantasy Spin: I would only use Texans players as #2 guys or to augment my roster. I’m not convinced the O-line can be anything other than adequate. Same goes for Matt Schaub. I like WR Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels, but I can easily see their numbers dip this year. Steve Slaton had a great rookie campaign, but I’m not convinced he’s for real. He was a bitch at West Virginia, sitting out every time he got hit hard. I don’t believe his small frame can stand up for 16 games. Houston might be the only team that has better defensive fantasy studs than offense. Mario Williams is an elite DE, and DeMeco Ryans is an elite LB. I also like Dunta Robinson to have a nice rebound year this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Word out of Jacksonville was that the only reason Jack Del-Jackass has a job, is that due to the bad economy, the owners didn’t want to buy him out. Last season’s 5-11 record wasn’t a hiccup; it was the culmination of bad draft classes and Del Rio running off any talented player who acts like a leader (in the last three seasons the Jags have cut: Byron Leftwhich, Mike Peterson, Deon Grant, Marcus Stroud, and Fred Taylor).
This year, they bring in Torry Holt (what was Holt thinking?) but that’s not going to help much. Jacksonville can only run. They have no consistency on O. The O-line cannot pass block, only run block, as evidence of their 42 sacks given up last year. David Garrard is a good QB, but he’s not an elite QB. He needs weapons around him. Essentially the Jags offense will look a lot like the Rams O that Holt just left.
Even if the offense improves on its 18.9 ppg, I don’t see how they improve on their D, which gave up 22.9 ppg and 4.0 rush ypc against. Word out of Jax is that they’ll start tinkering with the 3-4 front. So while they might be able to cover up their lack of D-line talent, who are the pass rushers going to be? Or for that matter, who is going to be the second MLB? Brian Iwuh? Thomas Williams?
The bottom line: I give the Jags almost no chance of making a run to the playoffs. This should be the last season for Del Rio, and possibly their GM too. Expect rumors of Jax to LA to pick up some steam this year.
Draft: Once again the Jags try to draft in volume. Last year they spent their first two picks on two DE’s who combined for 6 sacks in 32 combined games. In 2007 they had 11 selections with only S Reggie Nelson making the starting lineup. This year they do it again. They drafted two offense tackles (to go with the four already on the roster, including two veteran starters who they spend money on in free agency a year ago. Not to mention their starting LT who they let walk this year). Then they took 3 WR’s in the back half of the draft. Now, I do like their first pick OT Eugene Monroe. He’s a sound all around OT, but has some durability concerns. WR Jarett Dillard could be a good #4 “hands” receiver. And there were a lot of people really high on RB Rashad Jennings, a 7th round selection out of Liberty. I haven’t seen very many Liberty games, but I do want to see what Jennings is capable of.
Fantasy Spin: It’s Maurice Jones-Drew and… well, no one really. Torry Holt caught 64 passes for 796 yards and 3 TDs. I think he might get 70-800-5 this year. But not much more. There’s nothing else worth drafting on this team.
If anyone can rival the Patriots in the AFC next year, it will be the Indianapolis Colts. We continue our preview of the 2009 NFL season with the AFC South:
Indianapolis Colts: Very interesting that when Jim Caldwell took over as head coach, he fired a lot of the defensive staff. Some of the reports coming out of Indy was that Dungy was too loyal, and should have made changes on that side of the ball a few years ago.
It should be interesting to see how much more aggressive and improved the Colts D is; especially if one of the two 300 lbs DT’s can emerge early (USC’s Fili Moala or Michigan’s Terrance Taylor). The Colts D has gotten by with a bit of smoke and mirrors. Even during their Super Bowl year, the team was weak against the run in the regular season. It’s never a good thing when a 5’8” safety is your best run stopper. Last year was no different. Despite playing with a lead in most games, the Colts gave up 122.9 rush yards per game and 4.2 ypc. And despite the super star names on the D line, the Colts only managed 30 sacks last year.
As good as the coaching changes may be for the Colt’s D, they could be detrimental to the offense. Tom Moore and Howard Mudd are retiring early (due to a change in the collective bargaining agreement), and while Tom Moore’s “offensive theories” to Peyton Manning should be absorbed, Howard Mudd was one of the best O-line coaches the NFL’s had in the last 15 years. They lose Marvin Harrison, but he hasn’t played much the last 2 years anyways. Rookie RB Donald Brown should be a good compliment to Joseph Addai and Indy should see a much more balanced offensive attack. Last year they only averaged 79.6 rush yards per game, compared to 255.9 pass yards.
The bottom line: Sometimes change is good, and the Colts could be the 2nd most talented team in the NFL. IF, the O-line can keep it together, we could see the best Colts team since their Super Bowl run in 2006.
Draft: The Colts have done an amazing job of drafting in the last 10 ten years. So even though not many people have heard the name Donald Brown, expect him and Addai to produce like Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes. WR Austin Collie was extremely underrated. He’s 6’2” and runs a 4.45 forty with good hands and solid route running ability (he’s also an El Dorado Hills product). He could be the next Rod Smith or Jimmy Smith. Of course the key to this draft are the two big DT Filli Moala and Terrance Taylor. I was not at all impressed with Taylor whenever I saw Michigan Play. I think Moala can be an improvement in the middle for the Colts, but I don’t see him making any Pro Bowls any time soon.
Fantasy Spin: Another fantasy gold mine. Peyton, Wayne, Clark, and Gonzalez are all outstanding picks, and Addai and Brown will be quality #2 RBs. Defense is a little more tricky. I think Dwight Freeney’s name doesn’t match his production. He’s too inconstant and his small frame could be catching up to him as he’s struggled with foot injuries the past few seasons. Same with Bob Sanders. He’s too injury prone to draft. Robert Mathis and Kelvin Hayden are better options to fill out your defensive roster. Safety Antonie Bethea had 101 tackles and 2 Ints last year.
Tennessee Titans: What 13-3 team has the best chance of falling below .500 this year? How about the Titans. Does anyone think they can score 23.4 ppg like they did last year with Kerry Collins? Collins isn’t going to improve. 2008 was his best year in seven seasons, and he only tallied 12 touchdowns, 2,676 yards and a 80.2 QB rating.
Also, can the defense absorb the loss the most productive DT in the NFL? No they can’t. Look what happened to the Chicago Bears when they lost Tank Johnson a few years ago. And Albert Haynesworth was MUCH more productive than Johnson was in Chicago.
The Titans are trying a new philosophy to fill out the roster. Instead of bringing in young players who have yet to break through, they are brining in players who have been cut or waved by more than one team in the last couple of seasons. The ideal is: these guys are clinging to their last chance of staying in the NFL, and they’ll be hungry and driven. Well, if that’s true, then maybe Kerry Collins to Craphonso Thorpe can be a deadly combo. But I’m not going to hold my breath. There’s a difference between a contributor, and foundation player.
The bottom line: This was a team that overachieved on offense last year. They lose the best player on their roster and the Vince Young saga could be a major distraction for a team that will now be faced with a first place schedule. I think the Titans will miss the playoffs.
Draft: I don’t know how good Tennessee is at evaluating talent. Just look at Vince Young and LeDale White. But they seem to draft in volume. It’s inevitable that SOMEONE is going to emerge. I like DT Sen’Derrick Marks, though he’ll probably have to have a go-around the league before he establishes himself. WR Kenny Britt could be a nice complimentary receiver, but I don’t see him ever being a #1. Keep an eye on LB Gerald McRath. He needs to get stronger, so he might only be a special teamer for a couple of years, but once he breaks into the line up, I think he’s going to be a staple on the linebacking unit for a long time.
Fantasy spin: I know LenDale White got 15 touchdowns last year, but I don’t trust him. I’ll only take him if he falls into the late-mid rounds. I really like Chris Johnson and think he’s a complete back who is going to get receptions and a couple of break-away 60-yard TD’s this year. Outside of that, there isn’t much on the offense. Perhaps Bo Scaife as a #2 TE. Defensively you can never go wrong with Keith Bulluck, one the best OLB in our generation. Outside of that, I would hold off on Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cortland Finnegan because without the pressure up the middle from Haynesworth, their production might fall off. Pick them up late, if at all. Safety Michael Griffin is developing into a rangy playmaker. Take him if your league scores well for all around defensive play.
Miami Dolphins: Last year the Dolphins took the Wild Cat offense and a last place schedule and turned it into an 11-5 record. Now other teams have a had an entire off season to work on defending the Wild Cat, and other than the draft, Miami didn’t do much to improve it’s team.
Last year Miami went 4-2 within the division. If they want to repeat that, they must improve defensively. They gave up 4.2 rush ypc, yet only gave up 19.8 points per game; a sign of the “bend don’t break” D. That’s a fine way to be competitive, but championship teams make plays, and force the opposing offense to adjust to them. They need to improve their run D to increase their margin of error in the other facets of the game. By that I mean, if your D is always playing with their back against the Red Zone, it becomes increasingly difficult to absorb turnovers and penalties on offense and special teams. I don’t see where Miami has improved their front seven.
The worst unit on the entire team was the secondary. Despite 40 team sacks, Miami yielded 227.8 pass yards per game. Enter rookie CB Vontae Davis and CB Sean Smith. So while the overall athleticism of the secondary has improved, there will be a learning curve that will result in mistakes, which equals points given up. They also added Gibril Wilson at Safety and he will help, not just as a mentor, but he’s an all around quality player.
The talk of the NFL world last year was of course the advent of the Wild Cat offense. Which brings into focus the QB position. When was the last time Chad Pennington had two quality back-to-back seasons? Hell, Pennington has never played in 16 games in back-to-back seasons. If he falters, is Chad Henne ready to step in? How many snaps will Pat White get? If he’s effective, will Miami try to run a two quarterback system? I think they will, and I also think it will be effective to a degree.
Miami added Center Jake Grove, which is an upgrade, but the run game was already strong.
The bottom line: Miami benefited from the surprise element of the Wild Cat, a last place schedule and a plus 17 turnover ratio. None of those things figure to be in their favor this season. The future is extremely bright in Miami, and there is no doubt in my mind that Parcells and Sparano will have the Dolphins as Super Bowl contenders a hell of a lot sooner and a hell of a lot longer than the Dallas Cowboys. But I don’t see a return trip to the playoffs for them this year.
Draft: CB’s Vontae Davis and Sean Smith are the future of the secondary. Both are aggressive and athletic. USC WR Patrick Turner was such a disappointment. So much potential, and not much domination. I think WR Brain Hartline could overtake Turner for that 4th WR position. Pat White is the big X factor. He’s too small to play Wild Cat QB on a regular basis, but he’s going to contribute to this team. Either at QB, or WR.
Fantasy Spin: Ronnie Brown is a great RB, but his numbers will dip this year, as he’ll lose the points he acquired taking snaps from center. Joey Porter should get a good look at double digit sacks, and Channing Crowder is a tackling machine. Outside of that, it might be slim pickings on an offensively conservative team. Perhaps snatch Pat White in a keeper league incase he develops as a solid passer. Ted Gin Jr. is worth drafting to fill out your WR corps as he returns kicks and should see and up-tick in production, as this is the “magical” third year for him.
New York Jets: A lot of things went right for the Jets last year. They averaged 4.7 ypc in the run game, and 3.7 ypc against on run D. They went 4-2 against the division and defended home turf. Yet, they failed to make the playoffs. Now they have a new head coach, and a rookie QB. I think firing Eric Mangini was an overreaction. Taking a first time head coach is always a gamble, and if Rex Ryan doesn’t pan out, then this team just put themselves out of the playoffs for the next six years.
Unless Mark Sanchez is the next Peyton Manning, the Jets won’t improve on their 9-7 record. The O-line is one of the best in the AFC, but they lost Laveranues Coles and K Mike Nugent (remember the angst on the faces of Jets fans when Nugent was drafted in the 2nd round? And now they let him walk in free agency). It doesn’t really matter if it’s Sanchez or Kellen Clemens under center, there’s no way the offense will be as potent as it was last year.
The defense could be better though. They added Bart Scott, Jim Leonhard and Lito Sheppard to a defense that was stout against the run, only giving up 94.9 yards per game and 3.7 ypc. They also tallied 41 sacks. However they gave up 22.3 points per game. The D might be improved, but with a transition on offense, if they are on the field longer, the points against might not drop.
The bottom line: The future is bright for the Jets. But Sanchez needs time to develop. Matt Ryan and Joe Flaco were rookies that led their teams to the playoffs, but history shows that’s highly unlikely to repeat itself.
Draft: Small, but excellent draft. Mark Sanchez could be Tony Romo type player (minus the fat girlfriends and attempts to make the US Open). Shonn Greene reminds me of Michael Turner. And Matt Slauson has a future at RG. Excellent job by the Jets.
Fantasy Spin: Thomas Jones is a good option for #1 RB. Either QB will need to be protected, and the O-line is excellent. Jones should have another excellent year. Darrelle Revis should be a good get if your team has int bonuses. Revis is a budding Pro Bowler and playing opposite Lito Sheppard means he’ll be protected and have an opportunity to make plays. Kerry Rhodes is a good all around player, so if your league rewards defense, he’s a solid pick to fill out your secondary. Calvin Pace was the leading sacker with 7.
I imagine I was one of the many who thought that draft day could not have worked out any better for Sacramento when Ricky Rubio slid down to #4.
When Tyreke Evans’ name was called I can’t say I was surprised, due his name being floated around in the preceding weeks. But I was disappointed none the less.
Then I do as I always do and tell myself: In Geoff we trust.
I tried to figure out why the man who adores foreign players more than anyone else outside of San Antonio, would pass over the next Steve Nash?
Two things: One, Evans’ plays better defense than Rubio. And Two: Kings’ fans can’t, or won’t wait for Ricky Rubio’s development. There in lies that problem. Ricky Rubio has a higher ceiling than Tyreke Evans, but Kings’ fan isn’t going to wait three years to see him fulfill his potential.
Hell, Kings’ fans couldn’t even wait ONE year removed from the playoffs before they deserted Arco, why would anyone expect them to wait three?
All year long I heard callers say, “Why should we show up to Arco? The Kings suck!”
Or, “When the Maloof’s put a good product on the court, then I’ll come back.”
Well thank you Sacramento. Thank you for turning yourselves into Southern California. Thank you to becoming Los Angeles front runner.
But I’d expect nothing less from a crowd at Arco that chants “MVP” when Kobe Bryant is on the free throw line. It’s like the Lakers have two home courts now.
Best fans in the NBA? HA HA HA HA HA HA!! Not even close! Not anymore.
No, the curtain has been pull back and Sacramento “Fan” has been exposed for the fair-weather, bandwagon, front running, assclowns that they are.
REAL fans support their team through thick and thin. That’s why ESPN caters to the east coast. That’s why east coast fans mock west coast fans for being soft, BECAUSE THEY ARE!
Case in point:
The Washington Redskins. They have one ten-win season since 2004 and have only been to the playoffs twice this decade. Yet they were number one in attendance last year. They have one of the worst owners in sports and they averaged 88 thousand people per game last year.
How about the Kansas City Chiefs?
They won two games last year. TWO GAMES. Yet over 74 thousand people came to watch the Chiefs every Sunday.
Do you know who else was in the top ten in NFL attendance last year? How about the Cleveland Browns and the Houston Texans.
So, ok. That’s the NFL, and this is the NBA. Well how about the New York Knicks? They’ve been garbage for years, yet they average 19 thousand plus for their home games.
Still not convinced? How in your own back yard Sacramento? How about an example of a non-playoff team that has been mediocre for YEARS and yet still has the support of REAL fans at home. That’s right, the Golden State Warriors were in the top ten of NBA attendance with over 18 thousand people per game last year. Even the Toronto freakin’ Raptors averaged 18 thousand.
Oh, but the Kings, yea Kings’ fans are the best in the league.
12,571.
After eight consecutive years in the playoffs, it took two seasons for so called “Kings Fan” to abandon ship. 12,571 was ranked 30 out of 30 for worst attendance in the NBA last year.
No, Sacramento is no longer considered to have the best fans in the NBA, nor does Sacramento deserve that title.
So why did Geoff Petrie take Evans over Rubio? Because he knows this franchise needs instant success and he doesn’t have time to develop any talent. And three years from now Sacramento, if you ever see Ricky Rubio make an All Star team and wonder, “why didn’t we take that guy when we had the chance?”
New England Patriots: I hate to say it, because I despise this organization from the owner to ball boy… but in my opinion, the New England Patriots will enter the 2009 season as the most talented team in the NFL. They are, and deserve to be, the favorites to win Super Bowl 43.
There are questions about the health of Tom Brady, that he may not be what he was before he got injured. But really, he doesn’t have to. All he has to do is be as good as Matt Cassel. Under Cassel, the Pats avg. 25.6 ppg, 365.5 total yards per game, 22.3 first downs per game, 43.2% third down conversions, 32:25 time of possession advantage, and only committed 57 penalties. That’s good enough to win the Super Bowl.
They lose OC Josh McDaniels, but I felt his offense was extremely one-dimensional, and he failed to utilize Laurence Maroney. They also add WR Joey Galloway, WR Greg Lewis, TE Alex Smith and RB Fred Taylor. So New England should have no problem moving the ball.
The key then becomes the defense, where stopping the run has become a problem for the Pats since they can’t cheat anymore. Last year they gave up 4.1 yards per carry.
They lose S Rodney Harrison, CB Ellis Hobbs, LB Mike Vrabel, LB Rosevelt Colvin, CB Deltha O’Neal and the most overrated player in the history of the NFL Junior Seau. But they started the defensive rebuilding project last year, so there are a number of young guys ready to step in. Just in case, the Pats signed: CB Leigh Bodden, CB Shawn Springs, re-unite with LB Tully Banta-Cain, and drafted 330 pound run stuffing rookie DT Ron Brace. This now becomes a talented and savvy squad that should improve. My only question now is: Who’s going to put pressure on the QB? Last year Adalius Thomas was their leading sack man with five.
The Patriots will have to travel to London in the middle of the season to play against Tampa Bay.
The bottom line: Now that they can’t cheat anymore, the Pats have had to acquire legitimate talent to contend. I’m still certain they’re cheating on one level or another, but the fact is New England is loaded this year. It would be a major upset if the Pats did not at least make the AFC title game.
Draft: I’m not very high on S Patrick Chung. I think of him like S Roy Williams. But I do love Ron Brace. There is not enough value put on run stuffing DT’s. I think they are equally as important as a franchise LT. Watch out for WR Brandon Tate. He won’t see the field much this year with Moss, Galloway and Welker. But Tate should be a very good player in this league for a long time. The other kid I love is DT Myron Pryor out of Kentucky, a 320-pounder with a high motor. He could develop into a Casey Hampton type player.
Fantasy Spin: Obviously the Pats are loaded with fantasy studs: Moss, Galloway, Welker, Brady, and Jerod Mayo. I would take a chance on Fred Taylor. Last year Sammy Morris got 7 TD’s on 156 carries. I think Taylor will assume the bulk of the touches, and he should be able to score more than that. Defensively, Bodden and Springs will make each other better, so take either of them if you get big points for ints. I would take Bodden if your league favors turnovers; otherwise take Springs because he supports the run better.
Buffalo Bills: Buffalo was 0-6 against their own division, and yet finished 7-9 overall. Owner Ralph Wilson is in his 90’s and has said he wants “one more run” at a Super Bowl. The Bills won’t get that, but a return trip to the playoffs is possible.
The big news in the off season was the free agent acquisition of Terrell Owens. A lot of people are predicting doomsday for Buffalo, but Owens’ track record is that he’ll be good for one year before blowing up. Buffalo’s offense average 4.2 rush ypc, yet they only averaged 17.9 first downs and a 39.9 in 3rd down percentage. With Owens to draw coverage away from Lee and Hardy, the pass attack should be more spread out. This will open up the run game for the dynamic Marshawn Lynch, and that will increase their first downs.
I do have some concerns about their O-line, especially the loss of Jason Peters. But the Bills have done an adequate job of developing their draft talent. Also, they made ZERO attempts at replacing Peters either in the draft or via free agency. So they at least, are confident in the unit already in place.
With the offense on the field longer, a semi-talented defense should see improvements. Last year the Bills gave up 121.6 yards rushing per game at 4.3 ypc. They once again were weak in the pass rush and only tallied 24, leading to a meager 10 ints. The results were a minus 8 in turnover ratio.
This will be the second year for veteran DT Marcus Stroud, who is a big part of the center of that D. Also MLB Paul Posluszny and CB Leodis McKelvin will be in their second years and Bills fans should expect fewer mistakes from both of them. With Stroud, Posluszny and LB Keith Ellison, I’m confident the run D will improve. But the pass rush will be dependent on rookie DE Aaron Maybin. Will he be able to have instant impact? Some say he’s too light in the ass to be dominating at this level. He will be used as a pass rushing specialist. But ANYTHING resembling pressure on the QB will go a long ways in helping this team. Last year their sack leader had four.
The bottom line: If Buffalo can play .500 or in their division, they’ll be in the playoffs.
Draft: The Bills draft classes don’t always look sexy, but they usually end up being solid contributors to the team. Aaron Maybin is sort of a boom-or-bust pick, but I think at worst he’ll end up like a KBG type player. C Eric Wood and OG Andy Levitre won’t get a lot of attention, but they’ll be part of this O-line for the next 10 years. CB Jairus Byrd should battle Ashton Youboty for the nickel spot next year. I also like rookie free agent CB Lydell Sargeant. He’s a bit small, but I think he can make this roster.
Fantasy Spin: I like Trent Edwards as a #1 QB option (especially if you like to draft RB’s first and the elite QB’s are off the board). Last year he passed for 2,699 yards at 65.5%. With Owens in the line up (who I would not draft until the mid rounds), I expect Lee Evans to blow up. Last year Evans caught 63 passes for 1017 yards and 3 TDs. I expect a 3,000 yard 18 TD season from Edwards, and an 80 catch 1200 yard season from Evans. I also now put Lynch in #1 RB status. He’ll miss the first 3 games due to suspension, but I believe he’ll still break the 1,000 yard mark and possibly touch 10 touchdowns. Defensively Posluszny would be a good #2 LB. Leodis McKelvin is a solid pick as he should benefit from playing across Terrence McGee and he returns kicks as well.
